Russia's harvest of grain and vegetables is forecast to grow to 148mn tonnes by the 2026/2027 marketing season, a 2.1% increase from the 2022/2023 marketing year of 158mn tonnes, according to the Economic Development Ministry's socio-economic development plan for 2025-2027, reports TASS. (chart)

For 2023/2024, however, agricultural output is expected to dip below 2023/2024 levels to 145mn tonnes, primarily due to weather conditions and a high comparison base following a record harvest in 2023. This year's 2024/2025 harvest of grain and leguminous crops is projected to total approximately 132mn tonnes, while vegetable production is forecast to reach 13.7mn tonnes.

The ministry also forecasts a significant decline in the sugar beet harvest, predicting a 14.4% year-on-year drop to 45.5mn tonnes in 2024. Despite this, the production of white beet sugar in solid form is anticipated to rise modestly, reaching 6.7mn tonnes by 2027, a 0.5% y/y increase.

Sunflower production is also projected to decline in 2024, with volumes estimated to be 3.2% lower than the previous year, amounting to 16.7mn tonnes. However, by 2027, the sunflower harvest is expected to recover to 17.5mn tonnes, a 1.4% rise compared to 2023.

In the vegetable oil sector, production is set to increase by 0.9% in 2024, reaching 9.8mn tonnes, driven by a high harvest base. By 2027, unrefined vegetable oil production is expected to rise by 1.5% compared to 2023 levels, the ministry added.