Is the main stage of Ukraine’s counter-offensive underway? The Ukrainian Armed Forces made noticeable advancements on July 26 and 27 along three fronts in the Western Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, with the bulk of troops deployed in the south-east, the Kyiv Independent reported, citing two US officials.

Ukraine has reportedly penetrated Russian defensive lines in the south-east, allowing troops to overcome entrenched positions in the direction of Melitopol and Berdyansk, according to the Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces. Ukraine is expected to deploy thousands of Western-trained reserves with the goal of advancing through minefields and fortifications towards the Russian-controlled city of Tomak in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and eventually to Melitopol, where Ukraine can cut off the land bridge to Crimea or secure artillery positions close enough to the occupied peninsula, the New York Times reported on July 26.

Ukrainian Forces liberated Staromaiorske in Western Donetsk Oblast on July 27, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted in its latest report. The day before, Ukrainians made marginal advances north of Klishchiivka, 7 km south-west of Bakhmut, and additional progress east of Robotyne, 10 km south of Orikhiv in the west of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, although the ISW does not believe Ukraine has continued major mechanised assaults in Orikhiv.

At the same time, reports from Ukrainian army officials claim that Ukraine achieved tactical victories in the Melitopol direction, whilst Russian sources allege that Ukraine assaulted positions near Robotyne after breaking through defensive positions on July 26. The ISW notes that Ukraine could be operating deeper in Western Zaporizhzhia than its analysts can confirm.

​Blue areas indicate the positions of the Ukrainian counter-offensive (photo- source ISW)

Ukraine allegedly fired four rockets at Tokmak on July 27, according to the Russian-installed proxy leader Vladimir Rogov. However, the Kyiv Independent could not confirm this. The town has been a significant logistics hub for Russia since its occupation in March 2022, lying 20-25 km from the front line, and is surrounded by fortifications.

The recent progress in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has led to speculation that Ukraine is now entering the main stage of its counter-offensive. Nevertheless, an anonymous US official told the Washington Post that it's unlikely to be part of the main effort but rather shaping operations for later counter-offensive operations.

Moscow has responded by introducing new Ka-52M attack helicopters but has publicly downplayed the results of Ukraine’s intensified assaults. Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that Russian troops had destroyed 39 of the 50 armoured vehicles that Ukrainian forces committed to Zaporizhia and killed 60% of the Ukrainian personnel participating in the operations, as well as 40% of combat aviation pilots in the area.

Ukraine’s much-anticipated counter-offensive began in early June but has been slowed down by Russia’s dense defence fortifications and minefields. Nevertheless, James Heappey, the UK Minister for the State of the Armed Forces, stated that Ukraine is being “appropriately cautious” and is meeting current expectations.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have regained around 50% of the territory Russia occupied since the start of the full-scale invasion, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said on July 23. He believes the counteroffensive will last at least several more months.

Allies have bolstered Ukraine’s defence with major military packages, including more tanks, artillery and drones. US-manufactured Abrams tanks will arrive in Ukraine in September after refurbishments in Germany next month. Additionally, training for Ukrainian pilots to use F-16 fighter jets will commence in the next few weeks.

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