Ukraine’s counter-offensive is off to an impressive start, regaining 90 square kilometres of territory in the last week. But the main challenge will come soon when Ukrainian troops are faced with Russia’s strong defensive positions.

Several settlements were liberated in the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions in the past few days and Ukrainian forces claim to have wiped out dozens of Russian tanks, artillery systems, armoured vehicles and killed hundreds of Russian soldiers. In one day, Ukraine advanced up to 1 km towards the occupied port city of Berdyansk in Zaporizhzhia, retaking 3 square km, Interfax Ukraine reported.

"We are on the offensive, they are on the defensive, and they are suffering losses many times greater than ours," stated Valeriy Markus, 47th Mahura Brigade’s chief sergeant.

The three points of the counter-offensive are currently western Zaporizhzhia region, western Donetsk region and on the flanks of Bakhmut, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy noting success in the latter. “We’re increasing our zone of control in that direction,” the president said, New Voice of Ukraine reported. 

Evgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner mercenary group, is continuing his spat with the Russian Ministry of Defence, saying during a recorded meeting that Ukraine is moving “competently” and “carefully” and that “not enough” is being done to prevent the offensive. By his calculation, Ukraine has gained control of more territory than the 90 square km claimed, and labelled Ukrainian losses as “normal combat losses”.

However, Nato General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg warned that despite the early successes, the counter-offensive will be “bloody and difficult”, emphasising that allies need to continue providing military support.

"The Russians have had time to build – they're quite heavy defensive lines, and to breach them is a demanding task,” he told USA Today on June 12.

Russia has erected fortifications along 1,000 km of the front line, with the heaviest positions in Zaporizhzhia. The three-layered defence includes anti-tank trenches, triangular blocks known as “dragon’s teeth” and personnel trenches, reaching 30 km wide in some areas, The Daily Telegraph reported, referencing satellite images from Maxar Technologies.

“They have unbelievable trenches and unbelievable fortifications, it will be hard to break their lines of defence” a commander in Ukraine’s National Guards told The Daily Telegraph.

Ukrainian troops must push through these defensive positions and minefields in Zaporizhzhia, with heavy Russian fortifications around the town of Mykhailivka, in order to cut off Russia’s supply lines and push forwards in the direction of the city of Melitopol.

Russia has also eliminated Western-made military vehicles including Bradley Infantry Fighting vehicles and Leopard tanks. However, allies have pledged to send more equipment, with German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius promising additional Leopard 1A5 deliveries from July, stating that there will be 100 Leopards in Ukraine by the end of the year.

In addition, the US announced a new $325mn package which includes 15 Bradleys, as well as 10 Stryker armoured personnel carriers, missile systems, artillery, anti-armour systems and ammunition, the Kyiv Independent reported.

The UK will also provide $115mn in air defence as Russia increases its air attacks, relentlessly targeting military positions and cities across Ukraine. One missile hit an apartment block in Kryvyi Rih on June 13, killing at least 11 citizens and injuring 28.

Russia has circumvented sanctions to produce more missiles, including the ballistic Iksanders and Kinzhals capable of reaching hypersonic speeds, Interfax Ukraine reported, citing Yuriy Ihnat, spokesman for the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

“Obviously, Russia has found an opportunity to circumvent sanctions at the expense of individual countries that co-operate with it, and receives technological things that it cannot produce itself: boards, chips and semiconductors,” Ihnat said.

Although the first wave of the counter-offensive is underway, bne Intellinews notes that the full force is yet to come and Ukraine is likely probing Russian positions currently. Once Ukraine has determined weaknesses in Russia’s defence, it can mobilise reserves and conduct the second phase in the hope of a spectacular break through and rout of Russian forces, similar to the successful Kharkiv and Kherson offensives last autumn.

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