Automotive sector output in Hungary edges up 1.6% y/y in February
10 hours ago
Ukraine’s Economy Ministry has dramatically downgraded its 2020 macroeconomic forecast and forecasts a 3.9% year-on-year contraction in the economy in 2020, down from its previous prediction of 3.7% y/y growth at the start of the month, the ministry said on March 30.
That is a 7.2% change in growth from top to tail, about half as bad as the 2014 economic contraction of 15% in the first quarter of that year following the Euromaidan protests that ousted former President Viktor Yanukovych.
The Economy Ministry updated forecast also assumes consumer inflation of rising to 8.7% y/y this year from the previous prediction of 5.5% y/y and an average exchange rate of UAH29.50/$ (vs. UAH27.00/$ previously).
Nominal GDP is forecast to come in at UAH4,000bn for the year, down from UAH4,510bn previously forecast, while the average monthly wage is expected at UAH11,000 (UAH12,500 previously). The unemployment forecast has been revised to 9.4% from 8.1% previously.
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Data
Automotive sector output in Hungary edges up 1.6% y/y in February
Headline industrial output rose 1.8% in February, increasing for the first month in about a year.
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Slovak inflation eased further to 2.3% in March
Prices in the alcohol and tobacco sector increased by 19% y/y, including the 9.1% spike in tobacco prices as a result of the new consumption tax.
Polish inflation eases further to 2% y/y in March
The inflation rate landed within the National Bank of Poland’s target of 1.5%-3.5% for a second successive month
CEE falling inflation trend comes to an end
After spiking to 20-year highs thanks to the pandemic and Europe’s Russian induced energy crisis, inflation rates across the EU have tumbled in recent months. That trend has ended and CEE central banks are expected to hike rates again in 2H24.
Hungary’s CPI edges lower, but price pressures remain in service sector
Consumer prices in Hungary rose 3.6% y/y in March, but services' prices rose almost 10%.
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