Ukraine’s Kursk offensive has killed off any chance of ceasefire talks beginning any time soon, Russian diplomats say.

As bne IntelliNews has been reporting, Ukraine has been inching towards a ceasefire deal and both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy have signalled they were willing to sit down at the negotiating table.

Zelenskiy has been actively preparing a second peace summit slated to happen in November. Italy and Switzerland have stepped in to help and the Italian government has already started sending out invitations.

But Ambassador-at-Large of the Russian Foreign Ministry Rodion Miroshnik said on August 14 that Kyiv's attack on Russia has now "put the process of resolving the conflict through negotiations on a long-term pause." Following the invasion of Russia by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) Putin has also poured cold water on the idea of participating in those talks.

“What kind of negotiations can we even talk about with people who indiscriminately strike at peaceful people <...> What can we even talk about with them?” the Russian leader asked.

But Putin has not categorically ruled out starting ceasefire talks, saying only they were “less likely” earlier this week. But Russia’s diplomats have been more definite in recent comments.

The Kremlin and Russian diplomacy have responded to the Ukrainian Armed Forces' invasion of the Kursk region by saying Putin’s ceasefire offer in July to stop the shooting and freeze the current frontline was quite generous for Kyiv, but is no longer relevant, according to Russia's First Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN Dmitry Polyansky said, reports Vedomosti.

Russia will only return to the topic of talks after the completion of the Kursk operation, once Russia has expelled the AFU. Should the fighting in the region drag on, talks will be postponed indefinitely, Polyansky suggested during an informal meeting of the UN Security Council on the evening of August 13.

Polyansky says that Putin’s July offer "made a very generous offer to Ukraine, given its desperate situation on the front line," but demanded the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops beyond the administrative borders of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, as well as from the territory of Donbas, and their recognition as Russian at the international level.

During the UN meeting, Polyansky warned that Ukraine will "bitterly regret" its decision to cross into Russian territory, calling the decision an escalation of the conflict.

The latest reports from the military action in Kursk suggest the Russians are preparing for a long campaign. Scores of adverts for trench diggers have appear in Russian online press and reports that work has already started on defensive trenches some 45km from the Ukrainian border.

Russia's defence ministry also said on August 15 its forces had recaptured the village of Krupets in the Kursk region from the AFU – the first village to be retaken from the invading forces. The Ministry said its army had "completed destruction of the enemy and restored control of the settlement of Krupets." Other reports suggest that Russian reinforcements are starting to arrive and that “positional” fighting has begun.

Moscow is reportedly using aircraft, artillery and drones against the AFU, and the Russian Ministry claims its forces have "foiled the latest enemy attacks" including attempts to break through deeper into Russian territory. In a drawn out confrontation the AFU will be at a disadvantage due to its longer supply lines passing through enemy territory. 

Putin has accused Zelenskiy of the AFU land grab to improve his negotiating position in the mooted November meeting by capturing some Russian territory that he can trade for occupied Ukrainian territory. On August 8, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the head of the Ukrainian presidential office, said that the goal of the breakthrough was to strengthen the Ukrainian Armed Forces' positions in the negotiations.

Kyiv deliberately kept its western allies in the dark until the operation was in full swing, but most have come out in support of Kyiv in the following days. US President Joe Biden said on August 13 that the attack on the Kursk region "creates a real dilemma for Putin," and Washington is in "constant contact with the Ukrainians." EU diplomacy chief Josep Borrell also supported Kyiv's actions on August 13.

After Polyansky's UN speech, UK representative Kate Jones said that London would support Kyiv until "a just and sustainable peace based on the principles of the UN Charter and international law is ensured on earth." And US diplomat Caleb Payne blamed Moscow for what was happening.

The Kursk incursion has been a major PR success and visibly lifted morale in both Kyiv and amongst the men of the AFU, but the military objective of the attack remains obscure. Moreover, military analysts questioned the wisdom of the operation as they fear it will come with a very high cost in men and munitions that could ultimately weaken Ukraine’s defence of the hard pressed frontline where a major Russian assault is ongoing.

Following the failed Istanbul peace deal agreed in the first month of the war in 2022, what momentum that was building for a second attempt to end the conflict has now stalled. The situation has defaulted to Ukraine’s Western allies' position of supporting Ukraine and ensuring it doesn’t lose, but not supplying it with enough weapons to win.