Ukrainian dollar bonds rose nearly 6% in October, driven by investor sentiment that a potential victory for former US president Donald Trump in 2024 could accelerate efforts to end the war in Ukraine. The bonds are now among the month’s top-performing assets, with their value approaching $0.50-$1.

Ukraine’s warrants linked to economic performance also climbed, trading above $0.70-$1, the highest level since Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion. After initially falling below $0.15 amid the onset of the war, these bonds have recovered as funds increasingly buy into Ukraine’s debt securities, citing optimism about a diplomatic solution.

"This idea is widespread in the market," said Dragon Capital, a prominent investment firm, in reference to the notion that Trump’s potential return to office could speed up a peace process.

In a recent meeting with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in New York, Trump discussed plans for resolving the conflict. While details of the discussion were not disclosed, Trump stated afterward that he "learned a lot" but reiterated his belief that dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin could bring about peace.

Trump has previously claimed he could have "resolved" the conflict before taking office. However, he has not confirmed if he wants Ukraine to achieve outright victory. Investor optimism, however, appears tied more to hopes of a cessation of hostilities rather than assurances on the final terms of peace.