The tensions in the Middle East are ratcheting up. It seems that the fear of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict turning into a wider war in the region, with the potential to involve major outside powers,  is looming larger by the day.

Just as the world was reacting to the joint US-UK airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen on January 11 — which also had the backing of Australia, Bahrain, Canada and the Netherlands —  the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced that it had hit targets in  Iraqi Kurdistan and Syria. 

The IRGC said it fired 24 ballistic missiles towards a “Mossad spying headquarters” in Erbil, in Iraqi Kurdistan, in addition to ISIS targets in Idlib in Syria. And it specifically stated that the attacks were in retaliation against threats to Iran’s security, in reference to the deaths of military personnel affiliated to IRGC and the Resistance Front in recent Israeli and US strikes in the region, as well as the recent bombings in southern Iran  claimed by ISIS. 

Both the alleged ISIS and Israeli targets were hit by strikes launched in the early hours of January 16. The synchronising of the attacks is a curious matter.

Tehran had previously issued warnings about imminent and harsh retaliations, both after the twin blast in Kerman, which killed about 100 people attending a memorial for late IRGC commander Qassem Soleimani, who was himself killed in a US drone strike in 2020, and the killing of other top military officials from Iran and the Resistance Front in US or Israeli strikes in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. 

Tehran views the recent ISIS-claimed blasts in the south of Iran as part of a broader attempt to undermine its security. The Iranian security officials’ narrative after the incident implicates the intelligence forces of neighbouring Afghanistan and Pakistan, who may have provided logistics support for terrorist groups, which in turn might have carried out the terror operation in line with the interests of other players in the region. In this context, the synchronicity of the January 16 missile strikes carries a specific message.

In another development later on January 16, the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency reported that two bases of another terrorist group behind a series of attacks inside Iran near the Pakistani border were targeted by missiles and drones. Though Iran has yet to officially claim responsibility for the Pakistan attack, it would mean it had targets with missiles in three different locations on the same day. 

While Idlib is controlled by armed opposition forces in Syria, and Iran can easily coordinate attacks with Damascus thanks to years of give-and-take relations between Al-Assad and Tehran, the strike on Iraqi Kurdistan was particularly surprising. Although Iran has endeavoured to maintain close ties with officials in Iraq and the Kurdish region, the long-standing issue of Kurdish separatism has overshadowed bilateral relations. 

“In relation to spy centres present in the Kurdish provinces of Iraq, it must be noted that, considering the appropriate interactions between the two countries of Iran and Iraq, and the meetings of senior security officials of both nations, it was expected that the authorities managing the regions or Kurdish provinces of Iraq would fulfil their neighbourly duties. In fact in their reports, they had repeatedly declared the absence of terrorist or espionage groups against Iran,” said Middle East expert Reza Sadrolhosseini in an interview with KhabarOnline.

Iran’s security apparatus had previously voiced concern about terrorist activities in Pakistan as some pointed to a possible Pakistani intelligence hand in providing logistics support for terrorists. This allegation has also extended to the ruling Taliban government in Afghanistan.

Iraq condemned the Erbil strike and described it as "an attack on its sovereignty.” The Iraqi foreign ministry said it recalled its ambassador from Tehran and summoned Iran's envoy in protest at the attack, noting that the missile strikes had "claimed civilian lives". 

Iraqi Kurdish Prime Minister Masrour Barzani also accused Iran of killing innocent civilians in its strikes and said: “What's surprising – we are not a part of this conflict. We don’t know why Iran is retaliating against the civilians of Kurdistan, especially in Erbil.”

Iran has a history of striking Kurdish targets in Iraqi Kurdistan, citing perceived separatism concerning its Kurdistan Province  adjacent to the Iraqi Kurdish region, though Kurdish groups say the IRGC has been targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure.

The US State Department issued a statement saying it "strongly condemns Iran's attacks in Erbil", denouncing the "reckless missile strikes, which undermine Iraq's stability”.

The White House confirmed that no US personnel or facilities were targeted in Iran’s January 16 missile attacks, yet the spectre of a direct Iran-US confrontation, which Tehran describes as a scenario desired by Israel, still looms large.

It remains to be seen where the retaliatory attacks by Israel, the US and its western coalition on one side and Iran and Resistance forces on the other side are headed.