On June 21, 2003, EU leaders gathered in the Greek port city of Thessaloniki for the landmark EU-Western Balkans Summit to discuss the enlargement of the bloc to the southeast. 

In a communique after the summit, the European Commission listed the states from the region identified as potential candidates: Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Serbia and Montenegro. 

That took place the year before the wave of accession by countries from Central Europe and the Baltic states – plus a single Southeast European state, Slovenia – to the EU in 2004. At the time, the Commission statement said: “The EU reiterates its unequivocal support to the European perspective of the Western Balkan countries. The future of the Balkans is within the European Union.” 

The sentiment is not unlike those being voiced by the European Commission and EU member state politicians today. And in terms of accession lamentably little has changed. Only one has joined from those states listed as potential candidates – one of which has split into three states and another of which is known by a different name. 

Croatia became the last country to date to join the bloc, and that was now 10 years ago, in 2013. Since then, rather than expanding further, the EU has only lost one member. 

“Today, we mark 20 yrs since the Thessaloniki summit when all the countries of the #WesternBalkans were promised a future in the EU (only Croatia joined),” wrote Tena Prelec, research fellow at the Department of Politics and International Relations of the University of Oxford, on Twitter.

Former Albanian foreign minister Ditmir Bushati also commented on Twitter on the slow pace of enlargement. 

“20 years ago in #Thessaloniki EU membership perspective of Western Balkan countries was confirmed. Since then, only [Croatia] joined. With the war in [Ukraine], it looks like the political dynamic behind enlargement is shifting. Is the [EU] poised for a new phase in enlargement?” he wrote.  

"On this day 20 years ago: EU-Western Balkans Summit in Thessaloniki. 'They will be become part of our family, of our European Union. They will become members.' The only thing that has changed are the talking heads," tweeted Jakub Bielamowicz, Southeast Europe and Western Balkans analyst at Warsaw-based research centre the Institute of New Europe.

Painfully slow

The accession candidate countries currently include five of the six Western Balkan countries. Their progress has been painfully slow for a variety of reasons. It is partly a flagging of enthusiasm for the enlargement project as the EU faced years of crises – first mass immigration, then Brexit and then the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. 

More specifically, the accession of Bulgaria and Romania in 2007 raised awareness within the EU of the perils of enlargement. The two states were, and still are, the poorest in the EU, and concerns of their lack of readiness in terms of the fight against corruption (and for Bulgaria organised crime too) came to the fore post-enlargement. 

The six Western Balkan countries are considerably poorer than the poorest existing EU member state and with some exceptions they also perform less well than almost all EU members on indicators such as fighting corruption and the state of democracy and the rule of law. 

There was also something of a vicious circle, as the receding prospect of EU accession led to an erosion of enthusiasm for reforms, and countries from the region started backsliding on democracy and other reforms. 

Different stages 

The entity ‘Serbia and Montenegro’, identified in 2003 as a potential candidate, has since divided into three separate countries, with Montenegro having peacefully separated from its loose union Serbia in 2006, followed by Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence in 2008. 

Montenegro, which was accepted as a candidate country in 2010 and started accession negotiations in 2012, is the clear frontrunner. It has opened all 33 accession chapters, of which three are provisionally closed.

Unfortunately, the political instability in Montenegro of the last three years has set back the reforms the country needs to make in order to complete its negotiations. 

The new political formation Europe Now won the general and presidential elections earlier this year, and there were hopes that with another EU-oriented party in power – the former ruling Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) was also committed to accession – the process might revive. 

However, Europe Now has ruled out a coalition with either the DPS or the smaller pro-EU United Reform Action (URA), leaving it with little choice but to strike a deal with a coalition of far-right parties. 

Serbia started accession negotiations two years later than Montenegro, in 2014, and the government has repeatedly reiterated its commitment to accession, even though polls show only around half the population want to join the bloc. 

So far, 22 out of 35 chapters have been opened and two are provisionally closed. However, progress has been stymied by Serbia’s failure so far to normalise its relations with Kosovo. 

Earlier this year there were hopes of a breakthrough, but since then unrest has erupted in Serb-dominated northern Kosovo, making a rapprochement look further away than ever. 

Albania and North Macedonia are now coupled in the accession process, despite Albania securing candidate status almost a decade after its neighbour. 

Early promise shown by the country formerly known as Macedonia did not result in a quick accession as its EU member neighbours used their veto power to wrest a series of concessions from Skopje. 

The politically difficult decision to change the country’s name from Macedonia to North Macedonia settled a long-running dispute with Greece, only for Bulgaria to step in with demands of its own that temporarily prevented North Macedonia moving on to the negotiation phase. 

The government is now urgently trying to force changes to the constitution demanded by Bulgaria through the parliament to enable the start of negotiations. 

Albania has had a much easier ride despite concerns among some EU members, notably the Netherlands, about risks related to drugs and crime. 

In Bosnia, internal political divisions long held back reforms needed for the country to secure candidate status. It finally achieved this in 2022 – over 19 years after the Thessaloniki summit.

Kosovo, meanwhile, wants to join the EU but cannot get candidate status as it is currently not recognised by five EU member states. This can only change if it strikes a normalisation deal with Serbia.  

Enlargement reboot? 

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine forced EU countries into a new awareness of the risks in the bloc’s backyard, amid fears of Russia using its influence to destabilise non-members. 

This gave boost to the accession process. Not only did Albania and North Macedonia finally get the go-ahead for negotiations (following heavy pressure on Bulgaria from other EU members), the EU Council also decided in 2022 to give candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova. 

While June 21, 2023 is a significant date in the Western Balkans as it marks the 20th anniversary of the Thessaloniki  summit, this year the main developments concerned the three countries in the EU’s eastern neighbourhood: Moldova, Ukraine and another aspiring member, Georgia. 

Reports on the three countries’ progress were verbally delivered by Enlargement Commissioner Oliver Varhelyi. They showed some progress on the lists of recommendations made by the EU last summer. However, there was perhaps not as much progress as officials from the three countries might have hoped for; Moldovan President Maia Sandu, for example, had been talking of a possible green light to start negotiations by the end of 2023 – something it took North Macedonia 18 years to achieve. 

2022 saw a revitalisation of the accession process, but for all the candidate countries, old and new, there are likely to be years of reforms ahead before any can secure their coveted membership of the European club.