After the invasion of Ukraine Russia saw an exodus of some of its best and most productive citizens. Official figures on just how many people, mostly men, left remain elusive but early estimates put the number at close to 1mn. But as the war goes into its third year, President Vladimir Putin and the Ministry of Digital Development suggest that a substantial portion of those who left have returned.

As bne IntelliNews reported, Russia’s brain drain seems to be in reverse after a reported 45% of the emigrees have returned to Russia, drawn back by the difficulties of finding a job in other countries and the flourishing Russian economy that is offering high pay and lots of work.

The true state of play remains obscure. The Federal Security Service (FSB) border service data only counts the number of border crossings, which does not accurately represent the number of individuals who have left the country. Additionally, the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs reported 68,000 new residence permits and foreign citizenships in the first nine months of 2023, based solely on voluntary disclosures from Russians who received foreign documents.

The Bell sought more precise figures by requesting information from migration and statistical authorities in nearly 70 countries. The result revealed that at least 666,000 Russians have emigrated since early 2022, surpassing previous estimates by over 150,000.

The primary destinations for emigrants include visa-free Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries such as Armenia (110,000), Kazakhstan (80,000) and Georgia (74,000). Israel has also seen a significant influx of 80,000 Russian repatriates. Surprisingly, the United States has become a notable destination, with 48,000 Russians applying for asylum or obtaining long-term visas.

Within the European Union, Germany leads with 36,000 Russian citizens, followed by Latvia (18,000), Spain (16,000) and the Netherlands (12,000). Serbia tops the list in non-EU European countries with 30,000 Russian emigrants. Turkey, despite its economic challenges, recorded a net increase of 28,000 Russians holding residence permits since early 2022.

Several countries popular with Russian emigrants, such as Thailand, Indonesia and Cyprus, did not provide data. Others, including Portugal, have not yet released their 2023 statistics. The total number of Russians who eventually returned after receiving foreign permits or work and study permissions remains unknown. Israel, for example, reported the total number of repatriates but did not track their subsequent movements. In 2022, 32% of Eastern European immigrants left Israel, a number likely affected by recent conflicts.

The mass emigration contributes to Russia's ongoing labour shortage that has driven up nominal wages far faster than inflation, exacerbating inflation, which is now at 9%, and the historically low unemployment rate, which is now at 2.6%.

Unemployment in Russia remains at an all-time low, while the number of people employed continues to grow, reaching 74.1mn versus 73.4mn a year ago, President Vladimir Putin said at a meeting with government members. "Last year there were 73.4mn employed people – this year there are already 74.1mn," the president said. "More than 2,000 vacancies are open, and unemployment is at a historically low level of 2.6%," Putin added.

Thanks to the war sucking up able-bodied men, the labour deficit is not going to be resolved any time soon. The Kremlin upped the pay for soldiers in July, offering a one-off payment on signing a contract equivalent to $20,000 – a huge amount for most Russians – to entice more men into the armed forces. The Ministry of Labour forecasts a deficit of 2.4mn workers by 2030. The broader impacts on the economy, science and culture are going to be significant.

Despite the seemingly small proportion of emigrants relative to Russia's population (0.5%), this exodus is the largest since the post-Soviet period, surpassing the 1992-2004 wave when 1.6mn people left the country.