Opium prices are soaring in Afghanistan following the Taliban's drug cultivation ban, threatening regional stability, new data from the UN indicated on March 12. 

The Taliban swept to power in 2021 shortly after the United States’ chaotic withdrawal of its troops. The unrecognised authorities imposed a ban on poppy cultivation in 2022 to curb illicit drug production, and burned poppy fields across several regions.

However, according to UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) data, the price of opium has surged tenfold since supplies became increasingly strained by the ban, potentially giving rise to a new growth in the cash-strapped country.

A kilogramme of opium, which cost $75 three years ago, now fetches $750, a dramatic increase that compensates traders for the significant decline in poppy cultivation and overall production.

Seizure data suggests trafficking of Afghan opiates has declined significantly since mid-2021, with heroin now seized half as frequently. Average weights of both heroin and opium seizures have fallen by about 50%, indicating reduced exports and processing.

However, the inflated prices generate substantial profits, primarily benefiting high-level traders and organised crime groups.

Afghanistan, historically a significant source of opium, held an estimated 13,200 tonnes of opiate stocks by the end of 2022, potentially meeting demand until 2027.

These stockpiles, valued between $4.6bn and $5.9bn, represented a significant portion (23-29%) of Afghanistan's 2023 economy, providing a temporary economic buffer for some Afghans with authorities of the former US-backed regime actively making commissions on the illegal sale of the product. 

The report indicates large-scale traders and exporters hold about 60% of these stocks, while farmers collectively possess around a quarter of total stockpiles. UNODC estimates the total value of these opiate reserves between $4.6bn and $5.9bn at current prices.

"Afghanistan witnessed an unprecedented period of over-production between 2017 and 2022, allowing for stocks to accumulate," the report states, noting that dry opium prices have increased tenfold since the ban was announced, from around $75 per kilogram to approximately $750 by early 2024.

In contrast, methamphetamine supply appears largely unaffected by the ban, with seizures increasing by 75% compared to 2021 levels. Methamphetamine prices have remained relatively stable at around $750 per kilogramme, suggesting alternative production methods or sources.

The UNODC analysis concludes that if consumption and export levels remain consistent, Afghanistan's opiate stockpiles could supply global markets for another three to four years.

The Kabul Ministry of Foreign Affairs has disputed these findings, stating in a formal response that "the suggestion of stockpiles amounting to thousands of tonnes of opium within Afghanistan is far from realistic" and questioning the methodology used, citing the economic hardships that limit farmers' capacity to store large quantities.