Veteran Afghan warlord Abdul Rashid Dostum has reportedly called on groups that oppose the fundamentalist Taliban to unite to create a parallel government-in-exile for Afghanistan that will move to dislodge the extremist group from power.

Dostum, who with other anti-Taliban figures has formed the Turkey-based High Council of Resistance to Save Afghanistan, made his appeal on September 15, according to Radio Azadi. It came two days after bne IntelliNews reported Russian political scientist Andrey Serenko has predicted an upcoming civil war in Afghanistan and has concluded that there is “no doubt that the Taliban regime will fall, and it will fall relatively soon”.

Seventy-year-old Dostum is an ethnic Uzbek, nicknamed “Pasha”, who has long been at the head of a private army and has near mythical status in Afghanistan, having fought with both the Soviets and the US during the decades of Afghanistan’s endless wars.

However, it is two ethnic Tajiks that Serenko focused on as, in an interview with Tajikistan’s Asia-Plus, he told how the resistance in Afghanistan is nowadays mainly represented by two forces, the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan (NRF), led by Ahmad Massoud, sometimes referred to as the “Young Lion of Panjshir”, and the Afghanistan Freedom Front (AFF), reportedly partly led by Lieutenant General Yasin Zia, another ethnic Tajik, who served as chief of general staff and acting defence minister under the US-backed Afghan government that disintegrated ahead of the Taliban retaking power in Kabul three years ago.

“Both Massoud's people and Zia's people are very determined,” said Serenko. “They intend to fight for the liberation of their country from the rule of the Taliban, and I hope that all countries in the region will understand this sooner or later and will work with the resistance forces.”

“It is obvious,” concluded Serenko, “that the resistance forces are the only ones who can build a normal, civilised country and a modern state. Whoever supports them first will then be able to realise their interests in Afghanistan.”

Of Dostum, he said: “Marshal Dostum now lives in Turkey, and he is silent. At the same time, experts believe that if he had come to northern Afghanistan and called for an uprising against the Taliban regime, he would have been able to gather large forces, and the northern regions of the country would certainly have fallen away from Kabul. However, Dostum, like other former leaders who fled to Turkey, does nothing of the kind, as he and the others are closely guarded by the Turkish special services, who strongly advise against such steps.”

Dostum formerly served under the UN-backed former Afghan government, which fled amid the 2021 Taliban takeover, as a deputy defence minister, first vice president and chairman of the joint chiefs of staff. Human rights groups have accused him of committing war crimes, including the suffocation of a 1,000 Taliban fighters during the 2001 US invasion of Afghanistan.

No country has yet recognised the Taliban’s Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan administration.

Looking at what support Massoud could gain if he made a big move against the Taliban, Serenko noted that some of his fighters have lately been engaged in Herat province. He told Asia-Plus: “By the way, Herat is in the west of Afghanistan, it is a province adjacent to Iran. The effectiveness of Massoud's fighters suggests some support from the Iranian special services. Until recently, Tehran preferred to deal with the Taliban, but it seems that, at least tacitly, the Iranians are beginning to support Massoud. There are many Afghans in Iran who support this leader. I would like to note that Massoud recently visited Tehran and Moscow, but he recently refused to visit the United States.”

Radio Azadi observed that “US officials have insisted they are not providing military support to Taliban opposition groups, but are providing political support to non-Taliban leaders and political opponents of the Taliban and holding meetings with them”.