Africa is fast becoming a key player in the global energy transition — as the West and China compete fiercely for its vast mineral reserves — essential for electric vehicle batteries and energy storage systems. This new 'great game' highlights the continent's vital role in shaping the future of 'clean' energy.

As the global energy transition accelerates, Africa's wealth of minerals — such as cobalt, lithium, manganese, and graphite — is vital for meeting the growing demand for electric vehicle (EV) batteries and battery energy storage systems (BESSs). Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) batteries are the dominant technologies, but alternatives like solid-state and sodium-ion are in development.

China currently dominates the processing of crucial battery minerals, controlling 58% of lithium, 65% of cobalt, 35% of nickel, and 40% of copper globally, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Although African countries hold around 30% of the world's proven critical mineral reserves, much of this raw material is exported without local processing.

Despite abundant resources, Africa faces challenges in capturing the full economic benefits through local value addition. Success in building integrated battery mineral value chains (BMVCs) depends on overcoming these obstacles and making the most of opportunities for industrialisation and growth, especially as the US and EU try to reduce dependence on Chinese-dominated supply chains. Key players like the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), South Africa, and Zimbabwe are crucial to the continent's strategic role in the global battery industry.

According to the IEA, demand for critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements could nearly triple by 2030 due to the growth of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy technologies. By 2050, the IEA estimates that demand could rise by up to 500%, depending on climate policies and technological advancements, including battery recycling improvements. 

Demand for battery minerals is expected to surge in the coming decades. The IEA projects that the demand for lithium will grow over 40 times and that the demand for cobalt will increase by 20 to 25 times by 2040, driven by the EV market and battery storage needs. The global EV fleet is expected to expand from 11mn in 2020 to 145mn by 2030. The IEA also projects nickel and graphite demand to rise 25- to 30-fold by 2040. These minerals are essential for EV battery anodes and cathodes. However, slower-than-expected EV adoption may moderate these projections.

Africa is home to a substantial share of the world’s critical mineral reserves, and several countries stand out for their significant contributions to the global supply. The DRC alone produces over 70% of the world’s cobalt, a key material in lithium-ion batteries. With an estimated 3.5mn metric tons (mt) of cobalt reserves, the DRC's dominance is clear, but it mainly exports the ore in unprocessed form. 

Meanwhile, South Africa is a critical global supplier of manganese, holding 78% of global reserves and producing 36% of the world’s output. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), South Africa produces 7.2mn mt annually and has 600mn mt of reserves. Manganese is essential for electric vehicle battery cathodes and steel manufacturing, enhancing strength and durability.

In addition, Zimbabwe holds Africa’s largest confirmed lithium reserves, with 220,000 mt, according to the USGS. Meanwhile, according to the World Bank, Mali has 700,000 mt of lithium resources, with significant exploration projects underway. Namibia is also emerging as a lithium producer, with deposits at the Rubicon and Helikon mines, as noted by the World Bank.

According to the USGS, Guinea plays a vital role in the global bauxite market, holding the world's largest reserves at 7.4 bn mt and accounting for 22% of global production. Madagascar ranks among the top five producers of natural graphite, producing 10,000-15,000 mt annually, which is crucial for battery anodes, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.

In the nickel sector, Madagascar’s Ambatovy mine holds 1.6mn mt of reserves. In addition, Zambia is now the world's seventh-largest copper producer, accounting for 4% of global copper output. It boasts over 20mn mt of copper reserves.

Meanwhile, Morocco is crucial to the LFP battery value chain due to its vast phosphate reserves, accounting for around 70% of the global supply, according to the International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC). As LFP batteries rely on phosphate for their cathodes, Morocco's resources are vital to meeting the growing demand for EVs and BESSs. 

Furthermore, South Africa is also one of the largest vanadium producers, accounting for around 17% of global output, with estimated reserves of 3.5mn metric tons, according to the USGS. Vanadium is critical for vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs), which are used in large-scale energy storage systems that support renewable energy grids. 

Africa is also gaining attention in rare earth elements (REEs). South Africa's Steenkampskraal Mine holds one of the highest-grade REE deposits in the world. Additionally, Tanzania’s Ngualla Project and Burundi’s Gakara Project are emerging as significant sources of neodymium and praseodymium, essential for renewable energy technologies, according to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). REEs are not typically used in batteries but mainly in producing permanent magnets — key components in EV motors, wind turbines, and other high-efficiency devices.

Yet, despite its rich resources, Africa’s involvement in the processing and beneficiation of these minerals remains minimal. Beneficiation is the process of improving the quality and value of raw minerals by refining and removing impurities before further industrial use. It improves the material's grade, making it more suitable for manufacturing and increasing its economic value. 

After initial crushing, grinding, and separation, minerals undergo processing that requires low to intermediate technological capabilities, offering "low-hanging fruit" for African countries to add value. More advanced stages, such as refining, smelting, and electrolytic or chemical processing, transform minerals into high-purity precursor materials. These processes are capital and energy-intensive, with electricity supply potentially posing a challenge in Africa. The most complex stage, mid-stream processing, involves manufacturing battery cells by combining cathodes, anodes, electrolytes, and separators.

Most raw materials are exported for processing elsewhere, leaving African nations with limited economic benefits from the global battery value chain. For instance, Guinea, which holds the world's largest bauxite reserves, primarily exports raw materials for processing in foreign refineries, particularly in China. Similarly, the DRC exports raw cobalt and only engages in minimal refining locally. 

This lack of local processing capacity prevents Africa from capturing more value from its resources. However, some countries are beginning to push for more beneficiation. Zimbabwe has banned unprocessed lithium exports to encourage domestic processing, and Namibia has restricted raw mineral exports to promote local value addition. 

Moreover, Africa's abundant resources put the region firmly on the radar of mineral-hungry global powers. A battle for control of Africa's minerals is raging between China and Western countries. Both powers are heavily investing in infrastructure in Africa to secure access to these resources.

Thanks to its extensive infrastructure investment, China has long maintained a strong foothold in African mining, particularly cobalt and lithium production. 

In September 2024, China, Tanzania, and Zambia agreed to a $1 bn renovation of the Tanzania-Zambia Railway Authority (Tazara). Originally built by China in the 1970s, this 1,860km railway links Zambia’s Copperbelt — rich in critical minerals — to Tanzania’s Dar es Salaam port. The overhaul includes new tunnels and bridge repairs, making transporting copper and other minerals to East Africa's principal port easier. China's strategy is clear — securing the mines and logistics to ensure a steady flow of minerals.

Meanwhile, the US and its European allies are banking on the Lobito Corridor, which spans 1,300km from Angola's Atlantic coast to Kolwezi in the DRC. Reconstructed by China in 2006, the Lobito railway has become a focal point for Western interests. In 2023, a consortium of Western companies — Lobito Atlantic Railway (LAR) — won the concession to manage it, edging out Chinese contenders. LAR consists of Trafigura (49.5%), Mota-Engil (49.5%), and Vecturis (1%).

Trafigura has already invested $100mn in the project, with the US Agency for International Development Finance contributing an additional $250mn. The goal is to streamline the transport of critical minerals from the DRC to global markets, underpinning the global BMVC.

Plans are underway to extend the Lobito rail line further east into Zambia, connecting Angola to Zambia's Copperbelt. This 400km extension would create a direct route from Zambia's mineral deposits to the international market via the Lobito Corridor. Brussels and Washington have pledged support for pre-feasibility studies, with potential investments between $1.3bn and $3bn. However, full financing is still being discussed, and the EU is expected to contribute more.

Furthermore, in December 2022, the US, the DRC, and Zambia jointly signed an MoU to develop an EV battery supply chain. The MoU strengthened already existing cooperation between the DRC and Zambia to develop a cross-border integrated value chain for EV battery production. 

The MoU is in line with the African Green Minerals strategy put forward by the African Development Bank, whose priorities include establishing battery and EV value chains, starting with two—and three-wheeled vehicles and commuter buses.

This deal was followed by an October 2023 Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), including Angola and the Africa Finance Corporation, to establish a Trans-African Corridor connecting mining areas in southern DRC and northwestern Zambia to Angola's Lobito Port. This agreement also aims to develop industrial parks for processing cobalt and copper, though progress on these parks remains unclear.

These MoUs are part of the G7 Partnership for Global Infrastructure, a Western response to China's Belt and Road Initiative. 

Furthermore, President Biden's upcoming visit to Angola in October 2024, his first as president, highlights the growing American interest in Africa’s mineral wealth, particularly through initiatives like the Lobito corridor project. 

Meanwhile, several other African countries are taking significant steps to localise more of the battery value chain, with Morocco and South Africa emerging as key players.

Morocco leads the continent in developing an integrated BMVC. Its success is attributed to its phosphate wealth, industrial capabilities, and access to EU and US markets, supported by the 2014 Industrial Acceleration Plan and the 2021 Morocco Mines Plan. The country has attracted significant investment from French automakers like Renault, Peugeot, and Citroën, boosting its automotive assembly from 50,000 vehicles in 2010 to 535,825 in 2023, nearing South Africa's 633,337 vehicles. 

Additionally, Morocco entered the EV market, producing around 50,000 EVs annually as of 2022, targeting the EU market ahead of the EU's 2035 ban on internal combustion engine vehicles.

Morocco's upstream growth in battery production is supported by investments in precursor materials, leveraging its position as the world's second-largest phosphate producer. In 2022, China's CNGR Advanced Material announced plans to build a cathode materials plant to supply the US and European battery markets. In 2023, South Korea's LG Chem and China's Huayou Cobalt launched a joint venture for a lithium refinery and cathode materials plant.

In December 2023, BTR New Material Group announced a $500 mn, 50,000 mt cathode plant, with construction starting in 2024. Other investments include Hunan Zhongke's 2024 $460 mn anode plant and Hailiang's $450 mn copper plant. 

Despite being the most industrialised economy in Africa, South Africa lags behind Morocco in developing a battery mineral to EV value chain. Its automotive sector has yet to produce EVs, with only Toyota manufacturing a hybrid Corolla Cross. The country's Electric Vehicles White Paper was launched in late 2023, and a Critical Minerals Strategy is still pending.

However, South Africa has significant battery mineral resources and well-established mining and industrial capabilities, which could support the BMVC. It has a long history of mineral processing, primarily focused on gold, platinum group metals (PGMs), and ferroalloys. While an Energy Storage Research, Development, and Innovation consortium has existed since 2011, progress in converting research into commercial projects remains limited.

Thanks to its vast lithium reserves, Zimbabwe also aims to become a key player in the global race for electric EV batteries. The Bikita Minerals region, 300km south of Harare, holds around 65.43 mn mt of lithium. Chinese companies are leading the way, investing $2.79 bn in the third quarter of 2023 alone, mainly in mining assets and the development of lithium processing plants. Over the past two years, they have invested over $1 bn in Zimbabwe’s lithium sector. These investments highlight China’s dominant role in Zimbabwe’s lithium ambitions and the global EV market.

Beyond Morocco, South Africa and Zimbabwe, other countries such as Ghana, Kenya, Egypt, Rwanda, and Nigeria are advancing their battery ambitions, investing in local processing capabilities, and exploring partnerships to capture more of the value chain.

Efforts to establish gigafactories in Africa represent a significant step towards localising more of the battery value chain. A gigafactory is a large-scale manufacturing facility dedicated to producing lithium-ion batteries. These factories are crucial for mass-producing batteries used in electric vehicles and energy storage systems. 

With its established industrial base, South Africa plans to build a 32GWh gigafactory in the Coega Special Economic Zone. The factory, backed by Megamillion Energy, aims to produce lithium-ion batteries for EVs and energy storage systems. In North Africa, Morocco is also making strides with the construction of a 100GWh gigafactory in Kenitra, backed by Chinese battery giant Gotion High-Tech. 

Morocco's gigafactory project, valued at $6.4 bn, could position the country as a significant hub for EV battery production, especially for European markets. If fully realised, these gigafactories could significantly boost Africa's role in the global BMVC, making it not just a supplier of raw materials but also a producer of key battery components.

One of the main challenges facing Africa's battery ambitions is the continent's energy infrastructure. Mining and mineral processing are energy-intensive industries, and many African countries struggle with unreliable power supplies. In South Africa, frequent blackouts and soaring electricity costs significantly burden mining operations, with the country's power utility, Eskom, facing long-term structural problems. 

Many mining companies have resorted to using diesel generators or investing in self-generation through renewable energy sources. For example, Anglo-American Platinum in South Africa is developing a renewable energy plan to power its operations, while mines in Zambia and Mali are adopting hybrid power solutions that combine solar, wind, and traditional energy.

Other challenges include political instability and infrastructure deficits. Additionally, limited access to financing is a major obstacle, with high borrowing costs and perceived risks deterring large-scale investments. Regulatory uncertainty and bureaucratic hurdles in many African nations also complicate efforts to streamline mining operations and develop local processing industries.

Furthermore, more skilled labour and technology transfer are needed to ensure the continent's progress in moving up the value chain, particularly in areas like refining and manufacturing. 

However, in the global race to secure critical minerals, African countries can adopt a "strategic non-alignment" approach, prioritising their interests rather than aligning with geopolitical powers. They can play the West and China off each other.

Yet, African countries must adopt mining policies that create investor certainty to boost exploration and mining while setting clear rules for developing downstream processing. This can be enforced through mining licences, royalties, and export restrictions on unprocessed minerals. African countries must increase public investment in geological surveys and mineral research to strengthen their position. 

While China leads in the global BMVC, African countries have the opportunity to become significant players, too. Examples from Indonesia and Chile show this is possible. BMVC integration is mostly bilateral, with Chinese miners and Western commodity traders investing in critical mineral mining and exporting unprocessed minerals. Africa can engage in 'geopolitical auctions' that prioritise investment packages that offer the most value addition and development.

Nevertheless, building a pan-African BMVC is challenging — a continent-wide strategy remains unlikely. The slow progress in implementing the African Continental Free Trade Area highlights how difficult it is to get pan-African initiatives off the ground. However, there is potential for sub-regional strategies, particularly in southern Africa, which could offer a more focused approach to integration.

Ultimately, Africa has a real opportunity to be a driving force in the global BMVC. However, its success will depend on overcoming energy challenges and ensuring that the 'resource curse' associated with fossil fuels is not repeated. With suitable investments, strong governance, and effective partnerships, it can shift from being a raw material exporter to a key player in battery technology. By making the most of its mineral wealth, the continent can transform its resources into long-term economic growth and lead the future of clean energy.