Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has been told to flee the country and establish a government in exile as three important cities fall to forces advancing from all directions led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebels and their supposedly reformed leader Ahmed Hussein al-Shar’a.

Rebels had advanced to the outskirts of the key city of Homs as of December 7, as those loyal to the regime have fled for the coast in anticipation of the city's fall to HTS forces and the rapidly crumbling resistance by government forces in the last week.

From the south, Syrian Arab Army (SAA) forces are reportedly only 20 kilometres south of Damascus as Assad's troops fight off the likely foreign-backed group, which has experienced a resurgence in recent weeks.

Assad's military support has been massively weakened. HTS took advantage of the opportunity to launch a surprise assault on Aleppo last week, which rapidly fell to rebel forces, and has since moved swiftly through the country to take several more cities. The fall of Homs in the coming hours is now seen as inevitable.

Damascus-ally Moscow responded with its first air strikes on Aleppo since 2016 in an effort to slow their advance, to little effect as HTS and their Turkish-backed allies took the city in a lightning offensive. The cities of Hama in the centre and Deir al-Zor in the east have also fallen in recent days, whilst rebellions against the Assad regime have broken out in the southern cities of Suweida and Deraa after years of calm.

Syria's military said it was carrying out airstrikes around Hama and Homs on December 6 and reinforcing on that front, Reuters reported. Government forces are also repositioning around Deraa and Suweida, without acknowledging their capture by rebels.

Damascus is now in opposition crosshairs, with unconfirmed reports of shootings in the outskirts of the city on social media, with no support coming from Hezbollah or Iran in recent hours to save the Syrian presidency.

Assad already sent his wife and remaining children to Moscow to stay with their other son, who already lives in the city, for safety on December 5.

Arab allies of the Syrian presidency called on him to flee the country and "set up a government in exile", but it remains to be seen how this would happen as his support network appears to be seriously weakened in recent days.

Diplomatic efforts and international support

Assad called on Turkey and Iran for help to support his regime, but Tehran has only had emergency talks with Turkish officials in recent days with no concrete announcements between the two neighbours.

Rebels have taken advantage of the weakened military support for the Assad regime in the last year due to the expanding conflicts in Ukraine and Lebanon.

Two of Assad's main allies have been Russia and Iran. However, Russia has withdrawn many of its special forces stationed in Syria along with their equipment to bolster the increased Russian campaign on the Donbas frontline. Additionally, the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) has played a key role in the Syrian regime's fight against rebels seeking to oust Assad. Still, since the death of its leader, Evgeny Prigozhin, last year, the group has splintered and become ineffective.

Iran has backed Assad via Tehran-sponsored Hezbollah fighters. These too have been withdrawn back to Lebanon in recent months after Israeli IDF forces crossed the border into southern Lebanon. HTS launched its attack on Aleppo just as a shaky ceasefire took effect in Lebanon, pre-empting any chance that Hezbollah fighters could return to Syria to shore up city defences there. Still, their numbers remain massively reduced from fighting with Tel Aviv.

The HTS has been aided by the fact that Assad's forces have begun to change sides or at least abandon their support for Assad and have reportedly given up key cities without a fight.

Elite Assad troops in Homs, a key city and base for some of Assad's troops, reportedly left the city without a fight as the rebel forces approached. The Syrian military has reportedly been demoralised over the last four years after Assad, backed by Russia's military, regained control over most of the country, pushing the rebels into the northern part of the country. Assad failed to make badly needed reforms or cater to the needs of the long-suffering population.

HTS strategic development

HTS has been preparing for the assault for quite a while, according to reports. It has rebuilt its military structure, training elite units and introducing a much tighter and more disciplined command structure. It also appears to have been trained in media relations, conducting interviews with CNN in recent days.

At the same time, HTS has expanded its appeal to local areas it controls by supplying social, health and educational services to the local populations in the regions under its control.

HTS, formerly known as the Al-Nusra Front for the Conquest of the Levant and a Salafi jihadist group dedicated to taking control of Syria, was an offshoot of Al-Qaeda and at one point funded and supplied by the US as part of its efforts to oust Assad. However, unlike Al-Qaeda, which seeks a global caliphate, HTS is a nationalist group, narrowly focused on taking control of Syria and turning it into an Islamic state.

Thousands of residents have been fleeing the major cities like Homs, making for the relative safety of the coast. A video posted on social media shows mile-long traffic jams out of the cities in the last two days as it becomes clear to locals that HTS is poised to enter and take control.

HTS has faced little to no resistance from government troops, according to reports posted on social media. The swift and surprise offensive is a huge embarrassment for both Assad and Moscow that have boasted of re-establishing law and order in the face of long-standing terrorist attacks on his regime.

The four years of relative peace have bolstered Assad's position in the Middle East. Syria was invited to rejoin the Arab League earlier this year as the Middle Eastern powers attempt to shore up relations and unify their position in the face of the broader rising geopolitical tensions that have swept the world since the start of the war in Ukraine and the mounting political tensions of the China-US rivalry.