Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik’s visit to Moscow this week has led to intense speculation that the politician was sent back to Bosnia & Herzegovina to further escalate tensions in the ethnically divided country with the aim of distracting the attention of the EU and Nato. That would give the Kremlin more space to pursue its war aims in Ukraine while at the same time working towards a possible deal with US President Donald Trump. 

Even before Dodik’s trip to Moscow — in defiance of a travel ban imposed by a Bosnian court — Bosnia seemed to be closer to a new military conflict than it has been since 1995. Dodik has been actively working towards the country’s further destabilisation, with moves likely directed by Moscow and executed in coordination with Belgrade.

Dodik, who was sentenced to one year in prison for violating state laws at the end of February, has since initiated legislation changes and taken other steps towards the legal secession of Republika Srpska, one of two autonomous entities comprising Bosnia, other being the Muslim-Croat Federation.

Republika Srpska’s president pushed forward laws backed by the entity’s Prime Minister Radovan Viskovic and parliament speaker Nenad Stevandic – both from Dodik’s ruling SNSD party.

In response, the state-level prosecution issued arrest warrants for the three politicians, but so far no authority is ready to actually detain them due to the high risk of clashes or even a civil war.

In search of allies 

Dodik’s response was to make a tour of Serbia, Israel and Russia, where he met with President Vladimir Putin. This gave rise to speculation that Dodik might be seeking asylum in Belgrade or Moscow, in case things do not go his way in Bosnia. 

Dodik’s arrival in Moscow was not planned and it was unclear whether Putin would meet him at all. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that if such a meeting was held, the media would be informed. Several hours after Peskov’s comment, Dodik was received by Putin. And sent back home.

The separatist Bosnian Serb leader seems to be more useful to Putin back in the Balkans, where he can spark more instability or even a new war. 

As successive Southeast European countries join Nato and pursue EU accession, Dodik is a useful ally for Putin in the Balkans. For years, there have been reports that the Kremlin is financing and training paramilitary groups in Republika Srpska to use them to divert international attention from Ukraine.

On the other side, the EU is activating its diplomatic efforts to try to ease tensions. However, it will take more than visits and talks to prevent a possible new war in the Balkans.

Military alliance mooted 

Returning to Banja Luka, the administrative centre of Republika Srpska, Dodik did not wait long before escalating the situation further. On April 4, he said he will propose the formation of a military alliance between Republika Srpska, Serbia and Hungary, which is seen as direct threat to peace.

“To initiate and support this agreement. Within the framework of what we can, through our police, to get involved in the agreement, through special connections. We think this is completely normal. We shall turn to our friends," Dodik said at the Central Police Day ceremony.

He claimed this move was not directed against anyone. However, the entity cannot participate in military unions as this is allowed only on state-level according to the constitution and the Dayton peace agreement.

Meanwhile, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has warned that the situation in Bosnia is “slowly but certainly going out of control”, a state of affairs that he blamed on the country’s Bosnian Muslims. 

"I am not sure in which direction it is going, it is clear that Bosniaks [Bosnian Muslims] see this as their opportunity for a second half [of civil war after the 1992-1995 Bosnian war] and the removal of Serbs as a 'disruptive factor' and essentially want the abolition of Republika Srpska with all its competencies and prerogatives of power, although they will not say that," Vucic told reporters in Sofia following a meeting of the Process of Aqaba on the Balkans as quoted by N1 news outlet.

He claimed that neither EU, nor Nato want to resolve the situation but want a “final showdown of Milorad Dodik and they want, although they will not confirm it, that [Republika Srpska] has no competencies”.

“Serbia will not participate in the persecution, arrest of Milorad Dodik or anything like that,” Vucic added. 

Another ally of Dodik is Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. He has been defending Dodik and his authoritarian politics for years. There were rumours that Hungarian policemen, ostensibly sent to Republika Srpska for regular patrolling, aided Dodik’s and Stevandic’s border crossing. Although there is no evidence or confirmation of that, local media speculated that the Hungarian policemen were sent to help Dodik, Stevandic and Viskovic escape the country if the risk of their arrest becomes high.

Hungary, under Orban, has previously intervened in the Balkans to support Orban’s allies, among them former prime minister of North Macedonia Nikola Gruevski. Budapest gave Gruevski asylum after he fled North Macedonia to avoid serving a prison sentence for corruption. 

EU, Nato should keep pushing

As Bosnia becomes increasingly unstable, the only chance of preventing a new civil war, which could expand to the rest of the Balkans, is more decisive steps by the EU and Nato. EU has already increased the number of troops in its ALTHEA peace keeping mission in Bosnia, transferring a significant part of them to Republika Srpska.

However, they are not taking active steps to execute the arrest warrants of the state judiciary, despite having the authority to aid local police in such cases. The assessment of the state police is that the risk of military conflict in case of arrest of Dodik, Stevandic and Viskovic is significant. That is where EUFOR should step up and help Bosnians by removing those responsible for the current crisis from the scene.

The EU is increasing its diplomatic efforts, but its representatives are not welcome in Republika Srpska. On April 4, Dodik order the extradition of German State Minister for Europe and Climate Dr Anna Lührmann, threatening her and her team with violence if they did not leave.

Nato is also relying more on diplomatic efforts. The alliance’s Secretary General Mark Rutte has urged Dodik to obey the state judiciary and serve his prison sentence. 

As expected, Dodik said he would do no such a thing. It is also highly unlikely that Dodik would accept appeals by any EU or Nato representative and step back from what he has already done — unless he has no other options left. Yet without a more serious international intervention, Bosnia remains on a very dangerous path.