As the talk turns to a possible “direct clash” between Russia and Nato in the escalating Ukraine war, Belarus and Russia are tightening their mutual security agreements, with negotiations expected to conclude ahead of the annual joint military exercises Zapod 2025 (West 2025) later this year. These manoeuvres could serve as cover for the formation of a Russian-Belarusian strike group, reports Belarus in Focus September 15.

Belarusian Security Council Secretary Aliaksandr Valfovich said both nations are deepening military and political integration in a recent interview. The increasing presence of US and Nato forces near the borders of the “Union State” of Belarus and Russia has escalated tensions in Eastern Europe.

“Over 30,000 Nato troops are stationed in the region, with 20,000 deployed in Poland and the Baltic States,” he said. A US tank battalion is also permanently positioned along the Lithuanian-Belarusian border, while Poland has mobilised 17,000 troops along its eastern frontier, according to Valfovich.

Nato’s ongoing expansion – now including Finland and Sweden as members –further fuels Belarus and Russia's concerns. The Alliance is seen as pursuing the inclusion of Balkan countries and post-Soviet states, prompting Minsk and Moscow to enhance their security cooperation.

Since 2000, Belarus and Russia have operated the Regional Force Grouping and launched the Unified Regional Air Defence System in 2009. Joint military exercises and operations are ongoing, and Belarus is adjusting its military strategy based on Russia's experience in its “special military operation” in Ukraine. Valfovich noted the need to strengthen Belarus’ military presence along the Ukrainian border due to “persistent provocations by Ukraine,” including alleged airspace violations by Ukrainian drones. Despite this, Belarus continues to offer itself as a neutral venue for peace talks.

In the last three years, the Union State deal, agreed in 1999 but never completed, has updated key strategic documents, including the Military Doctrine and the Information Security Concept. A new Union State Security Concept is under development and will be signed in 2025. However, a treaty on security guarantees between Minsk and Moscow is expected to be finalised by the end of this year. Belarusian Foreign Minister Maksim Ryzhankou stated that this agreement will cover the use of nuclear and conventional weapons, providing Belarus with security assurances as the Union State braces for a possible escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

In the event of such an escalation, the possibility of a new invasion from Belarusian territory looms, potentially involving the Belarusian military and tactical nuclear weapons. Valfovich confirmed that Belarus is ready for the possible use of non-strategic nuclear weapons, with scenarios for their deployment practised in joint exercises with Russia.

Belarus has also confirmed that the Russian-Belarusian strategic exercises of the West Regional Force Grouping will take place in 2025. While specific dates have not been announced, past exercises suggest the active phase could occur in September, following the deployment of Russian troops to Belarus in the summer of 2025. There are indications that additional Russian forces could begin arriving as early as the end of 2024. Some analysts suggest the Zapod 2025 drills could follow the "Union Determination" model used in early 2022, potentially serving as a pretext for launching a new invasion of Ukraine from Belarus.