So, where were we? Ah yes, the Turkish lira was plumbing new depths, most of Turkey's FX reserves were burnt to a cinder, the central bank governor was fired in the early hours of a Saturday morning and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan received the resignation of his son-in-law finance minister Berat Albayrak little more than 24 hours later.
With a new central bank chief put in place, the markets of course were sniffing around for opportunities. And, come Monday (November 9) some sharp recoveries were indeed being seen in Turkish assets, with the lira stronger against the dollar by 5.3% at 8.05 by near the end of the day.
What’s not to like? Well, sorry to piss on the parade and repeat the endlessly repeated (by this news outlet at least), but for those who don’t want to get roasted it’s time to remember some basics of the Turkish jungle.
Hence, at the risk of mixing metaphors, we hereby present “The vulture’s guide to the galaxy of the Turkish jungle”:
1-) What happens in Turkey, stays in Turkey.
2-) If you try to chase up all talk, you’re on the road to scrambled brains.
Erdogan has "leaked" some rumours suggesting that he was not aware of the negative territory where the central bank reserves now reside. Ex-deputy PM and economy official Nurettin Canikli is another Erdogan man, as is new central bank governor Naci Agbal.
When Erdogan goes into a meeting with his men and appoints a new finance minister, how important will his identity be?
3-) There is no logic here.
“TRY rallied about 5% but I fail to see the logic. Agbal is Weirdogan's man and this means he will follow orders. He has already stated he will remain in 'review mode' for a few weeks until the next MPC [on November 19] which I would interpret as 'no change'... I would not chase this lira move,” Julian Rimmer of Investec wrote on November 9 in a note to investors.
The most logical argument comes from this illegal forex trading account that offers a “70% return in USD terms in 4 months”. Welcome to Turkey. The “Priest” referred to is US Pastor Andrew Brunson who, while detained in Turkey, became emblematic of Ankara’s dance around US sanctions, while “Damat” is Albayrak.
4-) There is no mercy here. It's entirely a dog eat dog world.
The background is awash with unverified information from discarded AKP ruling party members: They’re not trying to convince Albayrak to withdraw his resignation but the family is trying to convince Mr. Erdogan to “appoint him to at least a position that will not humiliate him”. Erdogan avoided taking a call from Albayrak’s father, Sadik Albayrak.
“Emine” is Turkey’s First Lady.
5-) There is no consistency, concern or shame here. Do not try turning as sharp and fast as these Islamist and neoliberal politicians at home; you may end up with a hernia.
Soylu is a former employee of Daily Sabah, the flagship newspaper of the Erdogan-loyalist media directed by Berat Albayrak's brother.
6-) No one, including Erdogan, has any idea as to what is happening here. There is no God, the Prophet is on annual leave. If someone tells you they know what will happen, report fraud to the cops.
7-) If all roads lead to the City of London, that’s because so many of Turkey’s economy officials have returned home along the road that leads from the City of London.
8-) Turkey is in serious “political turmoil” or undergoing a “massive shakeup” in its economic hierarchy. To survive in the Turkish jungle, you have to learn to separate stories written by the Istanbul offices of Bloomberg and Reuters from stories written by Reuters and Bloomberg personnel abroad.
Erdogan should be congratulated if after everything he manages to keep stalling calls for snap elections.
9-) Turkey will come face to face with the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) in December or when "Sleepy Joe" Biden takes over the White House.
10-) Turkey as a whole, excepting a fortunate minority of its households, is facing an FX blackhole. Yes, it is a smart idea to move for households’ gold and FX savings ‘under the mattress’ to close the country’s short FX position. But no smart politician or servant of the system has yet come up with a fit-for-purpose plan to do this. With the current bunch in power, citizens are not exactly going to voluntarily queue up to avail themselves of state-blessed investment opportunities.