Bosnia & Herzegovina is facing its biggest crisis in 30 years with politicians in Republika Srpska, encouraged by Moscow, taking steps towards secession. Recent moves by Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik and his ruling SNSD party have started a potentially dangerous chain of reaction within the country, and local politicians do not rule out a new civil war breaking out. 

Both Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Serbian peer Aleksandar Vucic openly support Dodik, and have accused the West of interfering with Bosnia’s internal affairs and acting against the rights and interests of its Serb population. Meanwhile, the Western international community has stepped up quickly to prevent a new war and de-escalate the situation. 

Dodik sentenced 

Dodik has long threatened secession of Republika Srpska, one of the two entities that makes up Bosnia, alongside the Muslim-Croat Federation, as well as the autonomous Brcko district.

Each of them has its own institutions. There are also state-level bodies and the international community’s high representative, Christian Schmidt, who has special Bonn powers to block legislation and acts that violate the Dayton peace agreement that ended the 1992-1995 bloody Bosnian civil war and the country’s constitution.

The current crisis was precipitated when Dodik was sentenced to one year in prison for defying Schmidt. Since then, Republika Srpska’s parliament has adopted legislation defying the authority of all state-level judicial institutions. Dodik is now also under investigation for signing decrees putting into force the new laws adopted at the end of February.

West versus East

This has put Western countries and institutions in direct conflict with Russia and Serbia, as they work to avoid a new war in Europe.

Both Putin and Vucic have excellent relations with Dodik, who has been talking intensively to Vucic since the end of February, when he was found guilty by a Bosnian state-level court. He also received support from pro-Serbian nationalists in Montenegro, including parliament speaker Andriuja Mandic.

Conversely, Nato’s Secretary General Mark Rutte slammed Republika Srpska’s moves during a visit to Bosnia on March 10, saying there was one country whose territorial integrity the alliance will preserve at any cost.

Perhaps more surprising for Dodik was the response from the US. The separatist leader is understood to have been hoping that US President Donald Trump and his administration would allow Republika Srpska’s secession and not interfere with his plans. He even claimed that Trump had given clear signals he would favour secession of the entity.

However, US State Secretary Marco Rubio said that what Republika Srpska is doing is wrong and would not be backed by the US. The US embassy to Bosnia issued similar statement. Dodik responded by saying this was not what Trump promised and that Rubio was wrong or misled.

Given the increased risk of clashes, the European Union has sent additional troops to Bosnia. The decision was taken after appeals by the Bosniak member of the state-level tripartite presidency, Denis Becirovic, and followed an attempt by Republika Srpska’s police to remove representatives of state investigation body, SIPA, from their offices on its territory.

EUFOR decided to engage its reserve forces, giving a clear signal it would not hesitate to do whatever is necessary to prevent a war.

Is war possible?

Despite Nato and the EU’s moves, the situation in Bosnia remains far from stable and many fear that Bosnian Serbs are looking for an excuse to provoke clashes. 

Dodik has frequently accused the Bosniaks of pushing the country towards civil war, accusing them of refusing to hold talks with him on “peaceful secession”. Dodik kept up his conflict with Bosnia’s state-level institutions, ignoring a summons from the prosecution on March 10. 

Making the situation more dangerous is Russia’s potential role should fighting break out. There have reports since 2018 that Russia has been training and arming paramilitary troops in Bosnia. Research by the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement previously indicated Putin would be ready to ignite a civil war in the country to distract the West’s attention from what he is doing in Ukraine. More recent reports say that the Russian Main Directorate of the General Staff GRU has been training groups that were used to attempt to provoke clashes in Moldova and Romania in Republika Srpska and Serbia.

There are suggestions that the situation in Bosnia is currently on hold as Russia is waiting to see whether US President Trump will fulfil or disregard its demands for Ukraine. In the latter case, it is not unlikely that there could be attempts to provoke armed clashes in Bosnia — although these would only escalate into war if the EU and Nato do not intervene quickly.

Time running out for Dodik?

Another factor is Dodik’s own fate. According to the court verdict, he is banned from holding any public position in Bosnia for six years. The politician is reportedly preparing to flee to Serbia, Russia or Belarus if the appeal goes against him, to avoid having to serve a prison sentence.

The US seems unwilling to save Dodik and has given no indication it will lift sanctions on him, his family and associates.

At the same time, the voice of the opposition in Republika Srpska is becoming stronger, calling on the SNSD to end all actions that would drag the entity into a civil war it cannot win.

This puts the separatist leader in a tough position and might mean the end of his political career should he be arrested or choose exile. The SNSD is also losing its position in the state-level ruling coalition, where it is expected to be replaced by the opposition parties from Republika Srpska. 

This development could be a good news for Republika Srpska and for Bosnia as a whole, as the opposition is more willing to support EU-oriented reforms and to cooperate with the Bosniaks and the Croats in the country.