As Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House, Iranians and their government are holding their breath over what is to come.

What Trump's return means for both regional dynamics and Iran's position in the global order, with a potential new round of sanctions or even war on the horizon for the country if the Islamic Republic doesn't play ball with the incoming administration, is startling both officials and the average man on the street.

His last tenure in the White House are not fondly remembered by the average person on the street following Trump’s departure from the long-negotiated nuclear deal or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018, the assassination of a begrudgingly respected IRGC general in Iraq and the general squeeze by his “America First” policy which was feverishly backed by those in Israel – the Islamic Republic’s nemesis.

"Relations with America must be revived and conducted within the framework of international regulations and in accordance with national interests," argues Mohammad, 42, a professor at a university in Tehran. However, this position immediately draws passionate responses from others who see such accommodation differently. "Bringing the country to poverty and misery under the banner of fighting America is neither an art nor an achievement," counters Fatemeh, 35, an economics graduate based in Tehran's Shahrak-e Gharb district.

The role of the dollar in global finance draws particular attention from Iranian observers, who view it through the lens of their country's experience with sanctions and international financial isolation. "America can exploit the world through the dollar's circulation in global markets," notes Ali, 51, a senior commercial banker in Tehran. "They've flooded world markets with an enormous volume of unbacked dollars, essentially telling the world: 'Watch out for us – if the dollar falls, America will stumble, but you will certainly die!'"

Trump's recent statements about territorial expansion – including claims about Canada becoming the 51st state, acquiring Greenland, and controlling the Panama Canal – are viewed by many Iranian commenters as signs of broader American strategic ambitions. "This isn't just Trump's personal decision," argues Reza, 45, getting into a taxi from Tehran's Argentine Square to 7-Tir Square. "This country expansion is what America really wants to do."

"The timing might vary, but the fundamental strategy remains unchanged," adds Reza.

Some Iranian observers see Trump's apparent instability as potentially masking deeper strategic calculations. His comments about territorial expansion are analysed in the context of America's mounting national debt, which Iranian analysts note has reached $36 trillion.

"Looking at it this way, you might see a thoughtful, rational face behind this seemingly crazy façade," suggests Sara, 38, a senior accountant from Shariati Street. She pointed to Trump's expansionist rhetoric to America's need to distribute its debt burden and access new resources.

The discussion frequently turns to comparisons between countries that maintain different relationships with the West. "Look at Turkey, Azerbaijan, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan," argues Hassan Akbari, 47, a currency trader on Tehran's Valiasr Street, comparing their development trajectories to Iran's. However, others quickly counter this narrative: "Why are Turkey, Egypt and Argentina in such dire conditions then?!" responded a colleague Mehdi, 43.

"I'm just worried that we're at the start of a new order that will prevail in the Middle East during Trump's presidency; I can't face more upheaval", Zahra, 55, a housewife and mother of teenagers from the Pasdaran area of the city.

Hamid, a 36-year-old trader, said: "All Arab countries will sign peace and trade agreements with the Jews. Iran will face increased pressure," adding: "Those who think Russia and China will abandon relations with America to side with Iran are deeply mistaken," he said following the historic joint agreement signed this week between the presidents of Iran and Russia.

Economic analysis from Iranian observers often focuses on the structural advantages the United States maintains in the global financial system. Dr Mahmoud Sadeghi, 49, a professor of economics at Sharif University of Technology, noted that while America's debt exceeds 140% of its GDP, "no other country in the world could sustain even half this debt without collapsing."

The planned speed of Trump's actions upon taking office – with reports of over 200 executive orders ready for day one – draws careful attention from Iranian observers who understand their country may be affected by these policies. Some see this as concerning evidence of aggressive intentions, while others view it as typical American political theatre.

"America's superpower era is declining," suggested Mostafa Rahimi, 41, an investment analyst in Tehran's Saadat Abad district, though others caution against underestimating continued American influence: "Those who deny America's obvious reality as the absolute military, political and scientific power in the world are deeply mistaken."

Iranian analysts frequently highlight the basic economic realities of global trade volumes. "Europe, America, China and Asia each import about $4 trillion annually, totalling around $16 trillion," explains Neda, 47, a trade specialist outside the Iran Chamber of Commerce close to the former US embassy building. "Iran's total exports, even without sanctions, only reach $70-80bn."

The depth of feeling around these issues is perhaps best captured by Amir, 58, a businessman in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar: "America builds its country with the capital of other nations – the real madness lies not in their leaders, but in the countries that accept dollar hegemony, trading valuable goods for paper without backing. Look at the inflation rates in America versus countries that use the dollar – this inflation has been exported from America to the world. The truly irrational ones are those who have accepted the dollar's dominance."