Russia / Opinion
IMF: Global economic outlook shows modest change amid policy shifts and complex forces
Dialing down uncertainty, reducing vulnerabilities, and investing in innovation can help deliver durable economic gains.
COMMENT: Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian refineries have probably reduced throughput by 30.4%, less than headline figures suggest
Ukraine has been hitting Russian refineries and caused a fuel crisis that has spead across multiple regions. The headline figure is that oil refining has been reduced by 38% since August, but digging into it and the reduction is likely less.
MACRO ADVISORY: The unintended consequences of Western sanctions
Since 2014, Western nations have hit Russia with a total of 26,655 sanctions (to mid-September 2025), with 23,960 coming after February 2022. The largest target group, with 13,611 sanctions, is state officials, business owners, and oligarchs.
COMMENT: Russia’s demographic fall enters a more dangerous phase
When Vladimir Putin first came to power, Russia was grappling with a demographic crisis. A quarter of a century later, the country faces another one—this time more severe, more complex, and more resistant to the tools previously used to contain it.
COMMENT: Trump is preparing a “back door” plan to blame EU for Ukraine’s failure - FT
European officials fear that US President Donald Trump’s dramatic U-turn on Ukraine is a back door plan to shift responsibility for the West’s failure to prevent Ukraine’s defeat in its war with Russia or help it recover afterwards.
COMMENT: Uncertainty and geopolitics plague Russia’s negotiations with China on gas supply deals
China is now the only potential buyer of Russian Arctic gas and the only customer with the capacity to absorb significant amounts of gas from the Yamal Peninsula, home to some of the country’s largest reserves.
COMMENT: Ukraine has no choice but to escalate its refinery attacks
Vladimir Putin's meeting with Trump in Anchorage backfired. The Russian president is now confident that military escalation will not lead to a significant increase in US military aid to Ukraine, much less intervention.
COMMENT: Russian drone and jet incursions highlight shortcomings in Nato’s multilayered air defence system
A spate of Russian drone incursions has stress-tested Nato’s air defences. On September 10, nineteen Russian drones violated Poland’s airspace — the alliance’s worst such breach in more than seventy-five years.
COMMENT: Can Ukraine avoid a macroeconomic collapse? - Shevchenko
“As Ukraine enters autumn 2025, its economy teeters on the brink of a new macroeconomic shock, with its recovery potential exhausted,” Kyrylo Shevchenko, the former head of the National Bank of Ukraine said in an opinion piece on September 18.
Washington has “surrendered” in the Central Asia battle for influence, says ex-ambassador
Russia and China now dominate narrative across region, Daniel N. Rosenblum tells students at Yale. If US cuts itself off from the world, “we will ultimately be less secure and less prosperous,” he warns.
Europe faces harsh realities in Ukraine as long war looms - Ash
Timothy Ash, senior sovereign strategist at BlueBay Asset Management in London, says European policymakers are belatedly waking up to the fact that the war in Ukraine is set to be prolonged — and that they alone may have to foot the bill.
COMMENT: US-brokered Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal exposes Russia’s strategic failures
The recent peace breakthrough between Armenia and Azerbaijan is a major diplomatic win for the United States and a setback for Russia, according to a new report published by the Atlantic Council.
COMMENT: Ukraine’s coming financial storm
“A crisis is drawing ever closer. It will break in Ukraine, but it won’t begin on the frontlines, where the country’s battle-weary brigades continue to impose a brutal cost on the Russian invader," writes Timothy Ash of BlueBay Asset Management.
INTERVIEW: The rags-to-riches rise of Freedom Holding Corp's Timur Turlov
As he rang the Nasdaq exchange bell to start trading in his company’s shares, the childhood dream of this Wall Street movie fan from a poor Moscow suburb had come true.
McFaul: Putin Is Making Trump Look Weak
It’s time for a new, effective, and credible response. Nearly two dozen Russian drones crossed into Polish airspace. Nato forces promptly shot them down - the first direct military confrontation between Russia and Nato since the Ukraine war started
Ukraine facing a financial cliff as IMF warns Ukraine may need an extra $20bn of external funding in 2025
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has concluded that Ukraine’s financing needs for 2026 and 2027 could be as much as $20bn higher than the government in Kyiv’s own estimates, as negotiations begin on securing a new aid package.
COMMENT: What were Russian drones doing in Poland?
With no clear explanation from Moscow, theories have proliferated over how and why more than a dozen Russian drones crossed into Poland on September 10—and what this means for European security.
COMMENT: Need and loathing in Russia – unpacking the labour migration paradox
Central Asian guest workers face growing hardship.
COMMENT: France’s instability risks weakening Europe at a critical moment
The French government fell on September 8, facing a 5.8% of GDP budget deficit it can neither fund nor reduce, plunging the Fifth Republic into yet another crisis at a critical time for Europe.
COMMENT: Putin’s pivot to China cements Russia’s vassalage to Beijing
When Donald Trump declared that Joe Biden had made the “unthinkable” mistake of pushing Moscow into Beijing’s arms, the US president suggested their partnership was inherently fragile.