Four Central and Southeast European countries — Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Lithuania and Moldova — along with the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico are set to suffer the world’s steepest declines in population relative to their size over the next three decades, according to the UN World Population Prospects 2024 projections. 

Looking further ahead, the severest contraction in population is projected for Ukraine by the end of the century, with the country’s population expected to contract by as much as 60%.

The projected population decline in the Central, Eastern and Southeast European countries is part of a broader trend across the post-socialist region, most of which experienced more than three decades of population decline after the fall of communism. 

Countries across Central, Eastern and Southeast Europe are suffering from a combination of low birth rates and mass emigration. 

Population change projections for Emerging Europe and Central Asia until 2100. Source: UN DESA. 

By 2054, Bosnia’s population is expected to decline by over 26%, according to the median scenario from the UN, while the populations of Albania, Lithuania and Moldova will fall by 23%, 24% and 25% respectively. 

Other countries set to lose more than a fifth of their populations include Belarus, Bulgaria, Latvia and Serbia. 

By the end of the century, the decline will be even steeper. Across the Emerging Europe region, the deepest decline is forecast to be in Ukraine, at 60%. Albania, Bosnia, Belarus, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova and Poland are also expected to lose more than half of their populations. 

Population declines of more than 40% are projected by 2100 in Armenia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Montenegro, Romania and Serbia. 

Global picture 

These countries are among 63 countries and territories worldwide where populations peaked before 2024, a group that also includes major nations such as China, Germany, Japan, and Russia.

Globally report indicates that the number of people living in these areas is projected to shrink by 14% by 2054. This demographic downturn poses serious challenges, necessitating innovative policy measures to address potential macroeconomic, labour market, social protection, and national security ramifications. 

"Rapid population decline in some contexts may pose a challenge, requiring innovative policy responses," the report states.

China, currently the world's second most populous country, is expected to witness the most substantial absolute population loss between 2024 and 2054, shedding 204mn people. Japan and Russia follow, with projected losses of 21mn and 10mn, respectively. The long-term outlook for China is even more dramatic, with a predicted decline of 786mn people by the end of the century, reducing its population to a level last seen in the late 1950s.

Emigration and population decline 

A significant factor contributing to this population decline is the drop in fertility rates. Since 1990, the global fertility rate has fallen from 3.31 to 2.25 live births per woman. More than half of the world's countries now have fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman, necessary to maintain a stable population size without migration. 24 countries, including China, South Korea, Italy, and Spain, are experiencing ultra-low fertility levels, with fewer than 1.4 births per woman on average.

In countries with already low fertility levels, emigration further exacerbates population decline. In 62% of these regions, emigration is expected to continue reducing population size through 2054.

For countries grappling with high emigration rates, strategies to create more opportunities for decent work and to promote return migration could be more effective in slowing population decline in the short term than policies aimed solely at raising fertility levels, says the report.

Peak in the 2080s

Globally, the population is anticipated to continue growing for the next fifty to sixty years, peaking at around 10.3bn in the mid-2080s before gradually declining to 10.2bn by 2100. 

However, in the Emerging Europe and Central Asia region, only the Central Asian republics will end the century with a larger population than they had in 2024. 

Uzbekistan, already the most populous country in the region, will see its population more than double by the end of the century. Tajikistan’s population is projected to expand by 91%, straining resources in what is currently the region’s poorest country. Population growth of around 63% is forecast for both Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. 

Globally, 48 countries, including Brazil, Iran, Turkey and Vietnam, populations are expected to peak between 2025 and 2054. However, the populations of 126 countries, including populous nations such as India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the US, are likely to continue growing through 2054 and beyond.