The responses in Central and Southeast to Donald Trump’s return to the Oval Office cover the spectrum from eager anticipation to wary acceptance. For some leaders, his victory heralds opportunity; for others, it is a challenge to navigate carefully over the next four years. 

In contrast to the enthusiastic welcome of Trump’s 2024 election victory from the likes of Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban, leading politicians in countries like Poland and the Baltic states, all committed EU members and staunch defenders of Ukraine, are considering how best to work with the erratic new US president when he takes office again on January 20. 

As well as the likely upheavals to transatlantic relations and domestic political dynamics, there is also the economic aspect: Trump’s presidency is set to affect trade policies, in particular in the region’s large export-oriented auto manufacturing sector.

Reluctant allies 

Long before Trump’s victory over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, it was clear whom key Polish politicians would rather see sitting in the Oval Office for the next four years. For the ruling coalition of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Trump is a sub-optimal choice that Warsaw will just have to deal with, given that the US – under Trump or not – remains a key ally.

Poland’s approach to the Trump 2.0 presidency is significant not only because it is the largest economy among the new EU member states, but it also holds the rotating presidency of the union for the first six months of 2025, meaning it will be in the front line during the likely tumultuous first months of the new MAGA administration. 

Poland will also continue to advocate for continued support for Ukraine fighting Russian aggression, a policy that is expected to come under duress in the early months of Trump, whose stance on the Russia-Ukraine war remains unclear.

During its presidency, Poland will try to ensure the European Union maintains unity in its relations with the United States. Prime Minister Donald Tusk already told his counterparts from other member states during an informal summit on December 19 to adopt a “coordinated approach towards” Washington, Polish news agency PAP reported, citing anonymous diplomatic sources from Brussels.

In an attempt to pre-empt any threats stemming from Trump’s proclaimed isolationist, or straightforward pro-Russia, policy, Poland needs to make sure its relations with the US are as good as ever, Tusk said in November.

"If we expect certain shifts or turbulence in geopolitics … it is all the more important for both Europe and Poland to effectively foster the best possible transatlantic relations," the Polish PM said.

Specifically, Poland remains worried that Trump’s erraticism could dictate his policy towards Russia at the expense of Ukraine, which the West must support or face an emboldened Kremlin.

In contrast, Poland’s main opposition party, Law and Justice (PiS), embraced Trump’s victory. PiS-backed President Andrzej Duda, whom Trump described as a friend and who tried to appeal to “the Donald’s” ego by getting him to deploy more US troops to Poland to a future base named “Fort Trump”, is stepping down in mid-2025. 

The party is hoping Trump’s return to power will inspire it to hold onto the presidency after Duda’s term comes to an end and keep Tusk in check.

Ahead of the election race, former PiS prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki has even talked of adopting the Trump-inspired slogan ‘Let’s make Poland great again!’ to rally the Polish right against the Tusk government. 

Defensive stance in the Baltics

In the Baltic states, Trump’s re-election has prompted calls for greater European self-reliance in defence. 

Ahead of the vote, Baltic politicians were more cautious than they had been eight years earlier, when Trump was elected for the first time. 

In Lithuania, leader of Lithuania’s populist River Neman Dawn party, Remigijus Zemaitaitis, and MEP Petras Grazulis, who is under fire for his homophobic remarks, were perhaps the only high-profile Lithuanian politicians who supported Trump openly and exuberantly. The latter is the only Lithuanian MEP invited to the Trump inauguration ceremony on January 20.

Speaking off the record, Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nauseda clearly favoured Harris, but rushed to get in touch with Trump for a five-minute call shortly after Trump's win. Political leaders from Estonia and Latvia were also quick to offer their congratulations. 

Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics admitted that Trump's victory means that Europe must think more about its own defence. While he assured citizens that there are no fears that the security of Latvian and Baltic countries is endangered, he pointed out that Trump's policies regarding Russia – which has borders with the Baltic States – and Ukraine are unclear. 

Orban sees “huge economic opportunity”

In contrast to leading politicians in Poland and the Baltic states, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban has openly celebrated Trump’s victory, repeatedly calling it a "huge economic opportunity” – though his decision not to attend Trump’s inauguration has given rise to intense speculation as to his motives. 

The Hungarian premier was the first European leader to support Trump during his 2016 campaign, and since then has been building connections with the new American right through state-funded groups. 

Hungary's veteran leader hopes to leverage economic and political benefits from Donald Trump’s victory, which could bolster his position within the EU and ease pressure over democratic backsliding.

Orban’s government is banking on improved trade relations and the resolution of issues that strained ties under the Biden administration, such as the double taxation agreement. 

Washington "penalised Hungarians for political and ideological reasons" when it came to visa policy, but this, too, would end, the prime minister said in an interview with a radical right-wing YouTube channel at the end of 2024. Orban also noted he was working to attract US investments in advanced technology to Hungary. After winding up his visit to the US, Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto’s deputy said US companies are open to making investments in Hungary that rival the size of Asian investments.

Warm welcome in Czechia and Slovakia

Like Orban, Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico is enthusiastic about the Trump presidency. The politician, who recently accepted Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invitation to Moscow’s Victory Day Parade, framed the Republican candidate’s victory as a “failure of liberals” and an endorsement of illiberal governance. 

In a telephone conversation with Trump, Fico discussed Ukraine, highlighting Slovakia’s unique position as a neighbour. “[A] substantial part of our conversation was the assessment of the military conflict in Ukraine, when American president [elect] D. Trump was interested in my views as a premier of a country bordering Ukraine,” he wrote on Facebook. 

A poll carried out before the US election by Europe Elects showed a slight majority of Slovaks preferred Trump over Harris. However, it is unclear whether Trump’s performance in the US will help Fico’s falling ratings. 

Slovak diplomat and politician Tomáš Valášek pointed out in an interview with bne IntelliNews that Fico’s popularity among voters has continued to fall since Trump’s victory. 

“Robert Fico is already trying to spin it as the “failure of liberals” and proof that these [illiberal] parties are on the rise. We don’t see that it would help him very much,” Valášek said. 

Victor Breiner, editor-in-chief of Slovak Media Monitor, pointed to the potential dangers of disinformation in the country. 

“With the coming of Trump’s administration, we can expect that the big tech companies, which control the Slovak information space, will go completely loose,” said Breiner, pointing out that Fico’s victory was secured through the reach of disinformation on large social platforms, and that last national and presidential election campaigns in the country were won by actors who were given the biggest reach. 

To prevent further domination of politicians such as Trump and Fico in the information space, and consequently politics, “we can only hope that they destroy themselves with their own corruption,” Breiner added.

In Czechia, Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s neoliberal ODS party has traditionally aligned with the US Republicans, though some members remain cautious due to Trump’s stance on Ukraine. 

After the vote, Fiala congratulated Trump, expressing optimism about future cooperation. Common ground was reached over Trump’s late first wife Ivana, a former Czechoslovak skier. “I am looking forward to our close collaboration,” Fiala wrote on his X profile after Trump’s victory in November. (Trump's current wife, Melania, hails from Slovenia, where right-wing former prime minister Janez Jansa is hoping for a comeback in the next general election.)

Fiala’s neoliberal ODS has traditionally been an ally of the Republican party. While some of the more moderate ODS members were careful about openly praising Trump given his stance on Ukraine, others have continuously styled themselves as Trump supporters, including ODS EP leader Alexandr Vondra. The country’s national security advisor, Tomáš Pojar, a hawkish backer of Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu, also praised Trump, saying: “foreign policy during his first term was well executed”.

Despite Fiala and his allies signalling that they are open to warm contacts with the Trump administration, another Trump backer in Czechia, populist billionaire leader Andrej Babiš, may have more of an opportunity to be in contact with Trump’s administration. Babiš once propagated a Czech version of Trump’s MAGA cap and his ANO party is now dominating the polls and is looking set for a return to power in the autumn 2025 elections. 

Auto industry at risk

However, challenges loom for the countries of Central Europe that have large export-oriented auto manufacturing sectors. These are at risk if Trump imposes tariffs on European carmakers.

Valášek pointed out that hopes the new Trump presidency will benefit Slovakia – which like Hungary has a large car industry – are likely unfounded. 

“This is the irony of all these populists of various assortments. They like each other and enjoy presenting themselves as some kind of united bloc, happy when another one wins and congratulating each other, but the reality is that they are completely contradictory in their policies, ambitions and goals,” he said. 

“If Trump really imposes the 25% tariffs, as I am hearing, mainly on cars, then there is no country in the world that could be more vulnerable to this than us. Nobody else is producing the same number of cars per capita as Slovakia. We are uniquely dependent on the sector. There is no other country in the world which would be as dependent on car manufacturing. If Trump starts the trade war, with some stress on cars, then no one is more vulnerable than us. Therefore to welcome the election of a man who is, de facto, vowing face-to-face that he will ruin your economy seems to me to be extraordinarily stupid and dangerous for this country.” 

Valášek also highlighted that there is likely going to be a conflict between the ties of Central European countries with China and their relationship with a Trump-led US. Trump views the containment of China, not Russia, as the main challenge for US foreign policy.

“[While] Fico glorifies [China], Trump has a diametrically opposite stance on China. He blames it for destroying the manufacturing capacity of the United States, for unemployment, for the drop in living standards in the United States, and plans to impose even bigger tariffs on China than on others,” Valášek said. 

“So how are Viktor Orban and Robert Fico, who adore China and want to get large investments from it, going to have an understanding with Donald Trump, who wants to punish China and curtail it from business with us? I repeat that these populists like to present themselves as one bloc, but already their internal differences are crying to the skies.”

Similarly, Estonian analysts have also warned that the Baltic states could be caught in the crossfire in the case of an intensified trade war between the US and China. The knock-on effect on Estonia could be substantial, particularly if trade disruptions lead to economic instability in European trading partners like Germany, Sweden and Finland, Swedbank’s chief economist, Tonu Mertsina, said in November as reported by ERR.ee.

Far right rises in Romania 

Romania saw the dramatic rise of far-right, pro-Russian candidate Calin Georgescu in autumn 2024. From relative obscurity – despite a huge TikTok following – Georgescu shot to national and international prominence when he took a shock first round lead in the presidential election. The second round of the vote was later cancelled amid concerns over potential illegal financing and Russian influence. 

The vote has been rescheduled for May 2025, with Georgescu having lost none of his popularity. Assuming he is allowed to run, he looks a virtual certainty to take the presidency, which would put Romania among the group of EU countries with leaders who are natural allies of Trump, along with Austria, Hungary and Slovakia.

Other politicians have also courted Trump. George Simion, leader of the far-right Alliance for the Future of Romania (AUR) and former prime minister Victor Ponta, a member of the Social Democratic Party who has taken an increasingly nationalist stance, have been visitors at Mar-a-Lago. 

Despite the formation of a ruling coalition, the domestic political situation in Romania has been volatile since the annulment of the 2024 presidential election, and is likely to remain so until a new president is elected.

However, the mainstream parties behind the current Romanian government developed close relationships with the first Trump administration, and there are no reasons to believe this time will be different. 

Shifts expected in the Western Balkans

Trump’s election augurs a significant shift in the US approach to the Western Balkans, in particular the relationship between Serbia and Kosovo. 

Meanwhile, a paper from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) published shortly before the US presidential election warns specifically that a new Trump administration would likely shift from a neutral stance towards the region to actively promoting Serb interests. 

“The most immediate risk is that the US would go from seeking to balance power in the Western Balkans (however imperfectly) under Biden to actively preferring Serb interests,” said the report’s authors, Adnan Ćerimagić, a senior analyst for the Western Balkans at the European Stability Initiative (ESI) think-tank, and Majda Ruge, senior policy fellow with the Wider Europe programme at the ECFR. 

This could undermine the fragile stability in Bosnia & Herzegovina, reignite calls for a contentious Serbia-Kosovo land swap and embolden actors with secessionist aims.

Trump’s priority in the region is likely to be the resolution of the Kosovo issue. 

The US will take a leading role in negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina, which have stalled under the EU. The figure most likely to lead negotiations is Trump’s former Balkan envoy Richard Grenell. Trump has appointed Grenell as his ‘envoy for special missions’. His appointment increases the chances of Kosovo’s partition, with the Serb-populated north passing to Serbia. 

A land swap was an idea previously mooted in the Western Balkans, but failed to gain widespread backing as it had the potential to set a precedent for multiple demands. However, Trump’s recent comments that the US might annex Greenland and Panama by force have indicated his administration would be open to a Balkan deal including a land swap.  

The return of Trump and Grenell could also be ominous for Kosovan Prime Minister Albin Kurti's Vetevendosje party, which is seeking re-election in February. Kurti explicitly accused Grenell of orchestrating the collapse of his previous government. Kurti, an uncompromising left-wing nationalist, was seen as a spoiler to efforts by the former Trump administration to broker deals between Serbia and Kosovo. He is likely to remain so, as polls indicate Vetevendosje is popular among voters and likely to be re-elected. 

Sanctions in question  

A more personal concern of some politicians in the Balkan region is US sanctions. In Bulgaria and Bosnia, Trump’s victory has raised hopes among sanctioned politicians like MP Delyan Peevski and Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik, an enthusiastic supporter of both Trump and Putin, that restrictions may be lifted. More recently, the US slapped sanctions on Orban ally Antal Rogan. 

There was previously speculation if Trump was elected it would encourage former prime minister Boyko Borissov’s Gerb and Peevski’s DPS – New Beginning to form a populist/illiberal alliance and rule in the style of Orban. However, Gerb has instead struck a coalition deal with the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), populist There Is Such People (ITN) and a rival DPS faction. 

As for Bosnia, it is yet to be seen whether Dodik will succeed, but during Trump's previous term sanctions on him were not scrapped.

Overall, Trump’s presidency is set to test the resilience of transatlantic relationships in Central and Southeast Europe. While some leaders see opportunities for economic and political gains, others face significant risks. Perhaps most importantly, given Trump’s erratic personality, the most likely outcome is four years of uncertainty.

Contributions from Valentina Dimitrievska in Skopje, Iulian Ernst in Bucharest, Linas Jegelevicius in Vilnius, Tatyana Kekic in Belgrade, Wojciech Kosc in Warsaw, Denitsa Koseva in Sofia, Clare Nuttall in Glasgow and Albin Sybera in Bratislava and Prague.