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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has set Damascus as the final target for Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Syrian National Army (SNA, formerly the Free Syrian Army FSA/OSO). He outlined expectations on December 6 after performing the Friday prayer at Hz Ali Mosque in Uskudar district, Istanbul.
The HTS dwells under the Erdogan regime’s patronage on the border with Turkey, while the SNA was directly established by Ankara. Together, they launched a surprise offensive against Syria’s Assad regime on November 27, a few hours after a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon took effect.
Erdogan eyes fall of capital
“Idlib, Hama, Homs and now, of course, the ultimate target is Damascus,” Erdogan said.
“Right now, Idlib is already under control. Homs is in the hands of the opposition and there is an advance towards Damascus,” he added, also stating: “It is our hope, may this march in Syria continue without any accidents and troubles.”
On December 5, bne IntelliNews reported that the Erdogan regime was hailing its “reconquest of Aleppo”.
“So we are again watching the same movie. Erdogan declares ‘war’ against Israel in the media [over its war on the Palestinians], while attacking Israel’s enemies in Syria,” this publication also noted.
Southern forces make move
Erdogan’s jihadists have continued their advance while the US-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA), positioned in southern Syria on the border with Jordan, have also launched an offensive along with other factions from the southern direction, also targeting Damascus.
Erdogan at door of Homs
As of December 7, Erdogan’s jihadists were targeting the city of Homs, located north of Damascus, while the southern forces were closer to the Assad regime’s capital.
(See live map here).
Assad pushed to Mediterranean coast
Currently, the Assad regime (red on the map) has been pushed to a line in western Syria on the Mediterranean coast that starts from Latakia on the border with Turkey in the north and goes through Damascus at the southern end.
Russia has air bases in the region that is still held by the Assad regime, while Iran and Iranian proxies as well as Russia have so far failed to provide support to the regime.
Syria’s interior minister has said on state TV that there is a “very strong military cordon” around Damascus that no-one will be able to get through.
Nothing from Doha
On December 7, the foreign ministers of Russia, Iran and Turkey held a meeting in Doha as part of the Astana Talks. Nothing much came of the meeting.
Erdogan is the guarantor of both the HTS and the SNA as part of the Astana process.
Chaos and media frenzy
Syria is currently in chaos once again. The country has been in, or has been on the edge, of chaos since 2011. As the jihadists have approached the capital Damascus from both northern and southern directions, the media frenzy has grown.
Observers familiar with what has happened in Syria since 2011 are also familiar with the level of manipulation that afflicts the media coverage, fuelled by dozens of actors in the field.
Everyone is clicking on Syria headlines. On December 6, CNN ran an interview with Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, head of the HTS, which is designated as a terrorist organisation by the United Nations.
Bloodier months (if not years) ahead
Perhaps Erdogan’s aim was obviously set out with his own words above.
Bashar Assad has not been visible in the media. However, he has not fled or been overthrown with a coup.
Russia and Iran have so far not been around with any meaningful military support. That does not mean they will never arrive. From 2011 to 2015, the Assad regime lost ground, yet, with the arrival of substantial Russia intervention, it bounced back.
Kurdish forces have been taking over territory left by Assad forces in eastern Syria, some of which were ordered to join the Damascus defence. Erdogan’s jihadists are yet to launch an offensive targeting them.
In any case, the situation in Syria will definitely not stabilise in the coming months, and perhaps not for years.
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