Total gas reserves in the European Union have surged to an all-time high just as the heating season begins, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE), an industry group representing European gas operators.

European underground gas storage (UGS) facilities are 97.89% full as of October 14, surpassing the average for this time of year over the past five years by 8.54 percentage points. (chart)

The total stored volume stands at 107.75bn cubic metres of gas just as the heating season is due to start in the next few weeks as net contributions to storage reserves to net withdrawals.

European countries have managed to fill their UGS facilities to beyond the required 90% level well before the November 1 deadline set by the European Commission.

The last time European UGS facilities came close to this level of occupancy was on October 28, 2019, when the rate reached 97.84%.

Nevertheless, with the heating season around the corner the price of gas has been creeping up as the gas held in storage tanks is not of itself enough to supply Europe’s power and industrial needs all winter and more gas still needs to be imported. The price of gas on the TTF exchange rose to over $600 per thousand cubic metres recently and remains more than double its historical long-term average.

Despite the war raging in Ukraine, Russia continues to export some gas to the EU via pipelines in Ukraine and via Turkey, but these could be cut off in the midst of winter.

Russia’s gas sales to Europe reached almost 140 bcm in 2021, halved in 2022, and can decrease again by around 65% to 20-25 bcm in 2023, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report on October 10.

A severe winter coupled with a complete suspension of gas supplies from Russia could see tanks fall to under 20% full by the end of winter in the worst-case scenario, the IEA said in its more recent update.

Supplies of Russian gas to Europe by the end of this year are expected to be two thirds lower than in 2021, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said. "Russian gas is cheap, reliable. True, the volumes have decreased. Supplies are lower notably than earlier, the volume will go down by around two thirds by the end of this year compared with 2021," he said in an interview with RT Arabic.