Moldova’s pro-Russian separatist Transnistria region has picked a natural gas trader, Cyprus-based Ozbor Enterprises managed by a former Gazprom executive, to import limited amounts of Russian natural gas through the Turkstream and Trans-Balkan pipelines after February 1.

The move appears to solve the energy crisis that hit the region after Gazprom cut gas supplies to Moldova on January 1. However, as the energy crisis seems to be ending, the security outlook is deteriorating after the Russian forces in the separatist region started drills in the so-called Security Zone without notifications, prompting protests from Chisinau. Probable financial support for the energy supplies from Moscow may be informally conditioned by a more intense military and political activism of the separatists.

The coincidence of increased military activity and the settlement of the energy crisis may reflect a more responsive attitude of the separatist authorities in Tiraspol to Russia’s demands after Transnistria has constantly avoided tensions with the constitutional authorities in Chisinau since the war started in Ukraine. In turn, the authorities in Chisinau stressed that “a long-term solution for the energy crisis in Transnistria can be reached only after the illegal Russian troops leave the region and the Russian peacekeepers are replaced with neutral forces.”

The intermediary for the Russian gas for Transnistria is an energy trader already active on the Romanian market, which should in principle address the concerns raised by the central authorities in Chisinau when a low-profile company controlled by a Moldovan businessman was initially announced as the intermediary.

Russia cut gas supplies to Moldova over a $709mn claim that was not recognised by the Moldovan authorities as a minority shareholder in Moldovagaz (the alleged debtor). Before the end of 2024, Moldova received 5.7 cubic metres (mcm) of gas per day from Gazprom, which was entirely sent to Transnistria, which in turn supplied the rest of the country with affordable electricity.

The resumption of gas supplies to Transnistria after February 1 is still not certain. “Moldovagaz JSC has already entered into negotiations with an independent European trader on this issue,” Transnistria’s foreign ministry said on January 23, implying that the contract is not yet signed. However, Ozbor Enterprises has already contracted capacity for imports through Turkstream.

The amounts envisaged for the gas imports to Transnistria, 3.1mn cubic metres (mcm) per day according to the booking contract for Turkstream, would allow the region to heat and produce electricity for its own use – but not to resume industrial activity or export electricity to the territory controlled by the constitutional authorities in Chisinau (Moldova proper).

The gas deliveries would reportedly cost $65mn per month, which is a considerable amount of money for the region that until January 1 received free gas from Russia. However, Moscow might still finance the separatist region by paying Ozbor Enterprises on behalf of the authorities in Tiraspol. In exchange, Transnistria would likely have to take a tougher position in in negotiations with Chisinau.

The rhetoric coming out of Tiraspol has already hardened, with officials accusing Chisinau of being responsible for the energy crisis. On January 23, Transnistria’s foreign ministry blamed the authorities in Chisinau for blocking the settlement of the energy crisis.

At the same time, the military drills started by Transnistria in the Security Zone indicate that the Russian troops are far from considering leaving the region. In fact, the authorities in Transnistria accused the pro-EU authorities in Chisinau of blackmail by conditioning the energy supply of the region on abandoning the Russian military support.

Speaking in a recent interview with Newsmaker, Moldovan President Maia Sandu stressed that Moldova was ready to provide immediate support to Transnistria. However, she made it clear that substantial financial assistance (with the help of Moldova’s development partners) will only be considered after the withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria and the replacement of the current peacekeeping mission with a civilian mission, under the supervision of either the United Nations or the European Union.