Iran’s lush northern Golestan province faces a shocking transformation into a barren wasteland in just 15 years, local experts warned on July 15.

Bne IntelliNews can reveal that Iranian experts are sounding the alarm over the rapid desertification of this once-green region to the incoming Pezeshkian administration and are urging it to take greater care of the environment.

Iran's northern Golestan province, known for its lush landscapes, could transform into a desert within 15 years if urgent action is not taken, environmental experts warned, Ruydadiran reported.

The province, home to nearly 2mn hectares of land including 452,000 hectares of protected Hyrcanian forests, is grappling with severe drought and water shortages. According to official statistics, 98% of the province's underground water resources are already being tapped.

"The alarm bells of desertification in Golestan are ringing," said Hamid Salamati, Director General of Natural Resources and Watershed Management of Golestan Province. "If serious measures are not taken, the province will become a desert in the next 15 years."

Salamati pointed to multiple factors contributing to the crisis, including human activities, the influence of Turkmenistan's Karakum Desert and the drying up of wetlands.

He noted that dust storms in Golestan have both domestic and foreign origins, with increasing severity of Central Asian dust storms hitting the region in recent years while other dust storms are now reaching the province as far away from the Arabian peninsula.

Climate change is exacerbating the situation, with Golestan experiencing unprecedented temperature increases over the past 80 years, outpacing other Iranian provinces, the official added.

The Iranian government has allocated funds to combat desertification, with $2.6mn annually earmarked during President Raisi's first visit to the province. However, only a fraction of that has been released by the outgoing administration.

Efforts to mitigate the crisis include the production of over 3mn saplings last year for forest and green space areas, and an additional 1.64mn for pasture improvement, but these have failed to make an impact due to the growing size over the overall problem along the southern rung of the Caspian Sea.

The province has also created 1,500 kilometres of firebreaks to prevent wildfires from damaging natural resources – an increasing problem wiping out areas of greenery over the past few years.

Despite these measures, experts stress that more comprehensive action is needed. Without intervention, an estimated 300,000 hectares of land in Golestan, primarily in the districts of Gonbad Kavus, Maraveh Tappeh, Gomishan and Aq Qala, are at risk of turning into desert.

The situation in the region is further exacerbated by recent reports of the Caspian Sea levels dropping in recent years. According to several European scientists, by the end of the 21st century, the Caspian Sea level may drop by 9-18 metres. As a result, Gilan will no longer be a port, nor will wetlands exist that were made famous in the 1970s with the signing of the Ramsar convention. Meanwhile, in the northern part of the sea water will recede to expose vast new fields of land.

In a study published by the scientific journal Communications Earth & Environment, scientists attempted to determine how global warming will affect all major lakes and continental seas of the world, including the Caspian Sea. Based on data from recent years, scientists have created a computer model of the Caspian and other large lakes worldwide. According to their calculations, the Caspian Sea will suffer the most.

This is because the water from its surface will evaporate faster, and in its northern part, the ice cover will disappear in winter. The level of the Caspian Sea is heavily dependent on changes in the average annual surface temperatures and the amount of water flowing into it from rivers such as the Volga, Ural and others.

Over the past few years scientists have observed a slow but constant decrease in its level, caused by global warming. Thus if global warming stops, the Caspian will drop by only 9 metres; otherwise, it will drop by 18 metres or more, reducing its area by a third.

Since 2005 the Caspian Sea level has been decreasing by about 20 centimetres per year. The situation is particularly serious in the northern part of the sea. Photos taken from space are alarming, showing significant areas of the seabed have already been exposed in the Russia and Kazakhstan sectors.