Romania’s exports of goods (chart) increased by 8% year on year to €8.64bn in May, when they outperformed imports (+0.8% y/y) for the fourth consecutive month, according to the statistics office INS.

In January-May Romania’s exports rose by 7.5% y/y – over 5pp faster than the imports (+2.1% y/y). The trade gap consequently narrowed by 13.4% y/y to €11bn in the five-month period and by 20% y/y to €2.2bn in May.

The country’s trade deficit returned to nominal levels closer to the pre-war period while the overall prices remain high – meaning that the actual volume of trade shrank, which is not surprising given the subdued economic activity.

In contrast, private consumption remains strong – which is consistent with the net imports of consumer goods remaining high: imports of food grew by 20.4% y/y while the exports decreased by 5.3% y/y, resulting in a significant deficit of some €1.65bn. The bulk of the deficit, some €5.2bn in January-May, comes from the chemical industry, though.

In absolute terms (volume), the country’s foreign trade – both exports and imports – is losing momentum, according to Q1 GDP data released last week: exports contracted by 2.3% y/y and imports by 0.3% y/y. For the period, expressed in euros, the exports/imports expanded by 8.4% y/y and 4.8% respectively. 

Compared to the period’s GDP, the exports also decreased – to 34.3% in Q1 this year down from 37.6% in the same period of 2022, to the lowest level in the past five years. The imports also dropped to 44.4% of GDP in Q1, down from 49.9% in the same period last year.