The Hungarian parliament's justice committee has approved changes to electoral laws that would redraw electoral district boundaries and reduce the number of constituencies in Budapest, a stronghold of the opposition, from 18 to 16, favouring the ruling Fidesz party.

MPs received the 65-page proposal late at night and discussed it in a parliamentary committee the next morning. Opposition parties said the short timeframe prevented proper review and public debate.

According to the proposal, Budapest will lose two electoral districts, while Pest County, surrounding the capital, will gain two districts, reflecting population growth in the suburbs. Other regions in the countryside where the same changes could have been justified were left untouched, which suggests a clear political motive behind the decision.

Fidesz argued that redrawing district borders was necessary due to population shifts, as tens of thousands of households have moved to the suburbs from the capital over the last two decades. This has led to the swelling of small towns around Budapest. The ruling party also claimed that the regulation addresses a legal issue as the population of individual districts may not deviate by more than 20% of the national average. The adjustments are aimed at making the election fairer, they added.

However, the recent meddling has created districts surpassing that threshold. A newly formed district in Pest county shows over 10% deviation from the national average, and Fidesz also tampered with district borders in at least four constituencies where Tisza outperformed Fidesz in the June elections.

Critics and opposition parties argue the changes favour the ruling party, and were proposed without public consultation or sufficient preparation.

Over the past 10 years, Fidesz has "tinkered" with the rules before every election to benefit itself and influence the will of the voters, without involving opposition parties, commented Budapest's liberal mayor Gergely Karácsony,

Liberal Momentum said the ultimate goal of the changes is to Fidesz’s chances of holding onto power in 2026.

Radical right-wing Our Homeland called the change a legalized electoral fraud, estimating that it would increase Fidesz's share of directly elected mandates by four seats out of the 106.

Dialogue party called the amendment revenge on Budapest for voting against Fidesz in the past.

Peter Magyar, head of Hungary’s leading opposition force, responded laconically, saying Fidesz's aim with the gerrymandering was to maintain power. He added that Fidesz could also lower the 5% threshold to 3%.

Parliament must pass the regulation before the end of 2024 to be applicable in the 2026 elections.

Experts did not rule out that Fidesz will unilaterally make further changes in the election rules if it serves its interests. Analysts pointed to summer speculation suggesting that Fidesz might establish individual electoral districts in neighbouring countries with significant ethnic Hungarian populations.

The 2012 electoral reform eliminated the two-round voting system, reduced the number of parliamentary seats from 386 to 199, and removed regional lists. MPs are elected directly in 106 single-member districts, and 93 seats are allocated based on party list votes. 

The reforms also provided significant advantages to the ruling nationalist party. Ethnic Hungarians in neighbouring countries, who are often seen as a loyal voting bloc for Fidesz can vote by mail, an option not available to Hungarian citizens living abroad, who overwhelmingly supported opposition parties in the past.