European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has appointed the EU’s first defence commissioner, former Lithuanian premier Andrius Kubilius, to coordinate Brussels' military stand on Ukraine,  but this is a role that many have criticised for having little real power.

The job is more about trying to coordinate amongst Europe’s fractured defence industries, which remain largely under the influence of the member state governments. He will be tasked with trying to enhance the bloc’s capacity to support Kyiv. Up to now, the EU has struggled to meet promises to supply Ukraine with arms. Last year Brussels promised to send a million artillery shells to Ukraine by March this year, a target that still has to be met.

Kubilius has an impressive sounding new job title, but he remains in the second tier in the EU hierarchy, having to report to the new technology commissioner. 

Kubilius, like most of the Baltic state leaders, is a staunch supporter of Ukraine, and was given the position created by von der Leyen partly in response to the area's frontline role against Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

"For those arguing that Ukraine should agree to peace conditions imposed by [Russian leader Vladimir] Putin, I suggest they consider offering up their own country’s territory," Kubilius told the European Parliament in July. "Peace can only be achieved if Ukraine is winning, and that requires the defence of its territorial sovereignty, which can only be done with our continued support."

Von der Leyen has announced that the new defense commissioner will be tasked with drafting a white paper on European security within the first 100 days in office  to prepare EU member states for "the most extreme military contingencies,”. This includes working on concepts for a European air defence shield, bolstering cyber defence programmes, and improving military mobility corridors. He is also tasked with consolidating demand for military equipment among EU states.

Kubilius emphasised that his top priority will be addressing resource mobilisation.

“This is a new priority area that needs resources. Ursula von der Leyen herself says that an additional euro500 billion  needs to be invested over the next 10 years. She also says that the best investment in Europe’s security is an investment in Ukraine’s security. These priorities need to be turned into reality,” Kubilius told LRT.lt, the website of Lithuanian national broadcast LRT.

“The EU defence industry is in a state of crisis, with European countries buying only 20 percent of the weapons they need from EU manufacturers. The single market in defence is practically non-existent and fragmented, as defence policy has also been very fragmented so far…The EU has defined a clear direction in its treaty – Article 42.2 states that the EU should grow towards a common defence policy and common defence. This is the direction of the new European Defence Union,” Kubilius said, LRT.lt reported.

According to Kubilius, his second major area of responsibility – space – is also very peculiar.

“Europe has had some very strong breakthroughs in space technology, but it is starting to fall very far behind in its ability to launch satellites into space. [...] Europe has a case here for not losing the competition. This requires funds, perhaps looking at how to better coordinate the whole policy,” he said, LRT.lt reported.

A fragmented landscape

Von der Leyen said Kubilius would help shape a more cohesive European defence strategy, but made it clear this was not a land grab and member states would remain in charge of their own militaries.

"He will work on developing the European defence union and boosting our investment in capacity," von der Leyen told reporters. "The composition of troops, missions and deployment remain the responsibility of member states," she clarified.

Kubilius’s portfolio will likely be constrained by budgetary concerns. Von der Leyen estimated in June that EU defence will need €500bn over the next decade, yet there is no clear plan for how to fund this.  A mooted $50bn loan for Ukraine, backed by the interest payments earned on the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) frozen assets, is  having to be rethought following a Hungarian veto. Countries like Germany and the Netherlands remain strongly opposed to issuing common debt, a solution used after the COVID-19 pandemic, while others anticipate a political battle over whether funds could come from the EU’s multi-year budget.

Kubilius has said the EU should look at jointly issued bonds in order to raise the additional €500 billion, or using the bloc’s bailout fund or using unspent money from its EU’s pandemic-era recovery fund.

A Baltic bloc emerges

Kubilius’s appointment places him at the centre of an emerging hawkish Baltic-led bloc within the European Commission, with several key figures from Eastern Europe now occupying top roles. 

Former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas was already appointed to be the top diplomat to deal with Russia and will be von der Leyen’s right-hand woman as EU foreign policy chief. She  also controls the Ukraine Facility, which provides financial aid for Ukraine, and the European Peace Fund, which compensates EU members for weapons they send to Ukraine.

Finland’s Henna Virkkunen, another staunch Russia critic, will oversee the technology commission, to which Kubilius will report.

Kubilius’s experience as a two-time Lithuanian prime minister has earned him a reputation for navigating economic crises. However, for many, he is notorious for his decision to overhaul taxes overnight and slash pensions 15-25% during 2008-2009, which was seen as arrogance.