Hamas’ Haniyeh assassinated: what happens next?

Hamas’ Haniyeh assassinated: what happens next?
Last picture taken of Hamas leader visiting a tourist site in Tehran. / CC: Tehran Picture Agency
By bne Gulf bureau bne Tehran bureau July 31, 2024

Ismail Haniyeh, the prominent Hamas leader, has been killed in Tehran. Early indications suggest that Haniyeh and his bodyguards were killed when a rocket struck the house where he was staying in the Iranian capital.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said in a statement that Haniyeh and one of his bodyguards died when their residence in northern Tehran was struck by an aerial projectile at approximately 2 a.m. local time. Unconfirmed reports suggest the projectile was launched from outside of Iranian territory, the location of which hasn't been released.

While Israel has not officially claimed responsibility, the operation bears the hallmarks of previous Israeli strikes. As one analyst noted, "Israeli jets are believed to have fired rockets from outside Iranian airspace," mirroring the pattern of an April 19 attack on Iranian air defences around Esfahan.

The timing of this assassination is particularly significant, coming on the heels of a Hezbollah rocket attack that killed 12 Druze children in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights a few days earlier. Israel had vowed a harsh response, and this operation, along with the killing of a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut, appears to be part of that retaliation.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on July 31 condemned Israel's strike on Iran that killed Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh, saying such actions undermine efforts to restore peace in the region.

"These actions are directed against attempts to restore peace in the region," Peskov told reporters during a regular press briefing in Moscow.

However, this aggressive stance comes at a cost. The assassination of Haniyeh is likely to derail fragile efforts to negotiate a ceasefire in Gaza. As a critical interlocutor in Qatar-brokered negotiations, Haniyeh's death leaves a significant void in the diplomatic process.

Turkey's foreign ministry summed up the sentiment of many in the region, stating: "It has been revealed once again that the government of (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu has no intention of achieving peace."

The Qatari Prime Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, echoed this concern, questioning the viability of ongoing peace efforts: "Political assassinations and continued targeting of civilians in Gaza while talks continue leads us to ask: how can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on another side? Peace needs serious partners and a global stance against the disregard for human life," Aawsat newspaper reported on July 31

That tone was echoed across the Arab world, with Jordan’s foreign ministry’s statement on X said the killing was "a violation of international law and humanitarian law," describing it as an "escalatory crime" that will cause further tension and chaos in the region.

Meanwhile, a damning report from the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights has shed light on another troubling aspect of the ongoing conflict. The report details widespread abuse of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel, including allegations of torture and arbitrary detention.

According to the UN findings, "thousands of Palestinians" have been "taken from Gaza to Israel, usually shackled and blindfolded" since the war began. As of June, Israel's prison service held more than 9,400 "security detainees," many of whom have been "held in secret, without being given a reason for their detention" and without access to legal counsel.

The report paints a grim picture of the conditions faced by these detainees. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk stated: "The testimonies gathered by his office and other entities indicate a range of appalling acts … in flagrant violation of international human rights law and international humanitarian law."

Former Palestinian detainees reported being held in "cage-like facilities, stripped naked for prolonged periods, wearing only diapers." The documented abuse included food, sleep and water deprivation, as well as more severe forms of torture. "Some detainees said dogs were released on them, and others said they were subjected to waterboarding, or that their hands were tied and they were suspended from the ceiling. Some women and men also spoke of sexual and gender-based violence," Al Jazeera reported on July 31.

These allegations come at a time when Israel is already facing scrutiny over its treatment of detainees. The Israeli army is currently investigating nine soldiers over allegations of "substantial abuse" of a Palestinian detainee at the Sde Teiman detention camp in southern Israel.

Middle East Director for Britain’s Chatham House, Sanam Vakil, said on her X account: “Iran Hezbollah Hamas and Iraq strikes by US and Israel are sequenced and coordinated. This is no coincidence and an opportunity to degrade the axis together, even if it risks a broader escalation.”

The situation remains tense, with now Israeli analysts publicly stating the problem is only set to worsen. Israeli analyst Akiva Eldar says the Haniyeh assassination will only lead to more bloodshed in the Middle East.

“It’s a vicious cycle. We have three partners here who are not looking to resolve the conflict. There is no responsible adult in Washington, or elsewhere, who is willing to put leverage on Israel and force us to go back to the negotiating table,” Eldar told Al Jazeera on July 31.

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