The Climate Crisis is depressing crop yields and fuelling a growing global hunger crisis that has already reached "unprecedented proportions", with between 3.1bn and 4.2bn people now unable to afford a healthy diet, according to recent reports from the United Nations' World Food Programme (WFP) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

Fewer people are in immediate danger of starving, but even that number is rising rapidly, according to the WFP.

“Conflict, economic shocks, climate extremes and soaring fertiliser prices are combining to create a food crisis of unprecedented proportions. As many as 309mn people are facing chronic hunger in 71 countries. We have a choice: act now to save lives and invest in solutions that secure food security, stability and peace for all, or see people around the world facing rising hunger,” the WFP said in a recent statement.

Conflict is still the biggest driver of hunger, with 70%of the world's hungry people living in areas affected by war and violence, according to the WFP. Events in countries such as Palestine and Ukraine have created humanitarian disasters in both countries. But climate change poses to significantly worsen the situation in the most vulnerable countries.

“The climate crisis is one of the leading causes of the steep rise in global hunger. Climate shocks destroy lives, crops and livelihoods, and undermine people’s ability to feed themselves. Hunger will spiral out of control if the world fails to take immediate climate action,” the WFP said.

This year has once again been the hottest on record that has caused droughts that are affecting food production worst in some of the poorest parts of the world.

A 2023 FAO report found that 3.1bn people – 42% of the world's population –cannot afford the minimum nutritional requirements for a healthy diet – a significant increase compared to previous years. In some regions, such as southern Africa, the situation is even more dire. Prolonged droughts have led a third of the countries in the region to declare a state of disaster, with an estimated 68mn people in urgent need of food aid.

One of the worst droughts in living memory has swept across southern Africa, leaving close to 70mn people without enough food and water. Zimbabwe's President Emmerson Mnangagwa declared a national disaster in April to tackle the prolonged drought crisis caused by low rainfall which has wiped out about half of the maize crop. The grain shortage pushed up food prices and an estimated 2.7mn people were coping with hunger. Neighbouring Zambia and Malawi also declared states of disasters due to drought.

Scientists have long warned that climate change would intensify food insecurity, and this year the world has reached that point. According to recent studies, the best-case scenario for global warming is now between 1.6°C and 1.7°C – higher than the 1.5°C target set by the Paris Agreement.

As bne IntelliNews reported, the climate models are wrong and underestimating the pace of acceleration of temperature rises. Despite the commitments made at Paris in 2015, emissions have not fallen, but risen to an all-time high, while the leading western countries have already overspent all their carbon budget, ignoring the limits to CO₂ emissions they agreed to in Paris that is contributing to the rapidly rising temperatures.

Even with significant cuts to carbon emissions, global temperatures are expected to rise by at least 2°C by the 2030 deadline – the maximum set in Paris as necessary to avoid an environmental catastrophe.

The rising temperatures are already impacting global agriculture. Over a billion people’s food supplies are in danger of collapsing completely in the coming decades if temperature increases are not checked. The Caribbean, Western Asia and all subregions of Africa have experienced the most alarming increases in hunger levels.

“Overall, Africa is the most threatened in terms of severe food insecurity because of reductions in the continent’s food production due to water and heat stress and because of the projected increase in Africa’s population by 2050. Other regions with substantial increases in severe food insecurity include the Middle East, South Asia and Central America,” scientists said in a recent study forecasting the climate-related changes to global food security in the coming decades.

In the worst-case scenario domestic food production in many African countries will provide less than half of their domestic food demand. Some regions, such as China and ASEAN countries, switch from being net food exporters to food importers by 2050, with a need to import from food-producing regions that have been affected by climate change, the study found.

The current 1.2C temperature increases from the industrial baseline have already reduced agricultural productivity by about 20% since 1970, with larger negative impacts in the Near East and North Africa. India was thrown into a rice crisis last year as yields dropped precipitously forcing the government to partially ban exports to prevent domestic prices soaring but causing a knock on crisis throughout the Pacific Rim. India’s tomato crop also collapsed.

Yields have also been directly affected by the war in Ukraine that has sent global fertiliser prices spiking.

“Global fertiliser prices have climbed even faster than food prices. The effects of the war in Ukraine, including higher natural gas prices, have further disrupted global fertiliser production and exports – reducing supplies, raising prices and threatening to reduce harvests. High fertiliser prices could turn the current food affordability crisis into a food availability crisis,” WFP said.

And even if countries are still producing enough food to feed their population, rising costs are pushing prices up to the point where the poorer members of society cannot afford to buy it, thus bringing the food crisis forward. The rising cost of basic nutrition is already pushing more people into extreme poverty. Currently, individuals need at least $7.40 per day to afford a diet that supports normal human life expectancy and the chance for their children to survive beyond their fifth birthday. The number of people living below this threshold has soared to 4.2bn in the last few years.

As the climate crisis continues to unfold, its impact on global food security is expected to deepen, further straining resources and pushing millions more into hunger and poverty. The international community faces mounting pressure to address both the immediate humanitarian needs and the long-term challenges posed by climate change.