Having allowed the vote on starting Ukraine’s formal accession to the EU talks to begin, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is now holding a four-year €50bn financial aid package for the war-torn country to ransom.

The Hungarian government is withholding its vote to approve the desperately needed package for Kyiv, set to be addressed at a leaders' meeting that started on December 14. Orban has been disparaging of the package and suggested last month that it should be cut in half.

In a piece of grand political theatre, the Hungarian leader walked out of the hall just as the vote on starting Ukraine’s EU accession process was taken, effectively abstaining, but allowing the vote to go through unanimously as is required under EU rules.

The opposition to the €50bn aid package may be more theatre, as while all 27 members must agree to allow any new members into the club, de facto giving Hungary an unstoppable veto over the decision, Brussels has alternatives for getting the €50bn to Ukraine without Hungary’s consent. Among the options open to the European Commission executive is to cut the €50bn into smaller pieces and have the member states raise the money at a sovereign level and then contribute it to the Ukraine Fund, which doesn’t need Brussels’ approval. If that happens then Hungary’s obstinacy would be largely symbolic and Ukraine would receive its money despite a Hungarian veto.

"Hungary’s EU funding and Ukraine’s financing are two separate issues," said Orban. He went on to repeat that Hungary remains opposed to the full four-year aid plan for Ukraine and is proposing a single-year financing option without amendments to the budget. Budapest is also open to considering contributions to the package.

Hungary is escalating its stance just as the EU plans to release about €10bn of financing to Hungary following legislative steps to fortify the country's judicial independence. But Orban is holding out for the full €30bn of funds that were suspended last year after the EC complained about deteriorations in the rule of law in Hungary and growing graft concerns in Orban’s administration.

As part of the negotiations over the frozen funds – the EC mechanism for badgering reluctant EU member states into complying with EC decisions – Hungary would consider an EU proposal to increase financing for border protection, a recurrent demand from Budapest. Additionally, Hungary seeks additional EU subsidies to enhance the competitiveness of the bloc's economies.

The EU funding is crucial for Ukraine's efforts to sustain its counter-offensive against Russian forces. The Ukraine’s 2024 budget  has a $41bn hole in it and the Ministry of Finance (MinFin) has already admitted that $29bn remains unallocated. The EU funding is desperately needed, as is another $61bn package proposed by US President Joe Biden that is currently tied up in Congress’s wrangling.

Hungary's close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin have drawn criticism from EU and Nato allies. Orban was the only EU leader to go to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) summit earlier this year and was photographed meeting Putin there and shaking his hand.

Orban says that Ukraine's EU membership remains a "red line" for Budapest, advocating for a strategic partnership instead. He has repeatedly said that he doesn’t believe Ukraine is ready, as it has completed only four of the seven tasks set by the EC as a prerequisite for membership. Orban has suggested that the vote on the start of the formal accession process be put off until the next EU summit in March.

For her part, EC President Ursula von der Leyen said earlier this week that Ukraine has made “enormous progress” towards meeting the accession criteria and has been aggressively pushing for the accession process to begin.

The start of the formal talks is largely symbolic, as no one is expecting Ukraine to join the EU club for at least a decade. As bne IntelliNews has reported, Ukraine cannot join the EU unless Common Agricultural Policy is reformed, as Kyiv would command as much as €186bn in subsidies under current EU rules, which would force huge changes to the way the EU is funded. Hungary and Poland, for instance, would probably go from being net beneficiaries of the EU to becoming net contributors.

Orban urged the EU to postpone accession talks to avoid sending a negative signal to Ukraine, stressing Hungary's commitment to a positive relationship with its eastern neighbour.

Von der Leyen, on the other hand, wants to see the process begin in order to bolster support for Ukraine and prevent the palpable Ukraine fatigue amongst many Western allies from gathering any more momentum.