A handful of the most prosperous countries in Central and Southeast Europe are expected to experience net inward migration in the coming decades, in defiance of the overall trend across the Emerging Europe region of mass outward migration, according to the World Population Prospects 2024 report from the UN’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA). 

Czechia, Hungary and Slovakia are all expected to receive a few thousand new inhabitants each year for the rest of the century after an initial outward wave of migration in the next couple of years as tens of thousands of Ukrainian refugees are expected to return home. 

Central Europe and some Southeast European countries have tight labour markets, as indicated by a combination of high vacancies and low unemployment. This has been a feature for years, as the region has become an important destination for both manufacturing and services, thanks to its position close to key European economies such as Germany, skilled workers and in most cases relatively lower costs than Western Europe (although the gap has been steadily closing). 

Net migration projections for Central and Southeast Europe until the end of the century. Source: UN DESA. 

This prompted migration both from poorer countries in the region, notably Ukraine and the Western Balkans, and increasingly from further afield such as developing Asia. 

From 2026, Czechia is expected to receive more than 12,000 migrants a year net, a trend the UN expects will continue (albeit in slightly reduced numbers) until the end of the century. In Hungary, immigration is expected to outstrip emigration by similar amounts. 

Slovenia, which along with Czechia is the richest country in emerging Europe in per capita terms, will receive somewhere between 1,000 and 3,000 migrants a year, helping to shore up its population that currently stands at 2.1mn. Slovenia is already a popular destination for migrant workers from fellow former Yugoslav countries. 

Estonia is currently experiencing net outward migration but that is expected to change from around 2034. The government has already had some success in efforts targeted at attracting highly skilled workers such as though its digital nomad visas, start-up visas and e-residency scheme. 

All four countries are forecast by the UN to experience a drop in population by the end of the century, raining from 16% in Estonia to just 8% in Slovenia. However, the decline caused by the low birth rates will be moderated by inward migration. 

Elsewhere in the region, Russia has long been a destination country for labour migrants, mainly from Central Asia and other post-Soviet republics. 

Since the invasion of Ukraine there has been a switch to net emigration as conscientious objectors and Russians fleeing the draft left for other countries in the region, mainly Central Asia and the South Caucasus. 

However, there are reports that large numbers of Russians are already returning, and the UN projects a switch to net inward migration by 2026. 

Russia’s population is still expected to decline by 7% by the end of this century, but this is considerably more modest than most countries in the region. 

Similarly, Azerbaijan has a large oil and gas sector  and a strongly growing economy. It has been a destination for large numbers of migrants mainly from neighbouring Georgia and Turkey to work in sectors such as construction and services. The country’s population is projected to grow by 8% in the next three decades, although it will decline by 3% by 2100.