The Centre of Economic and Law Studies (Celios) has urged the Indonesian government to remain vigilant about potential threats from US President-elect Donald Trump following Indonesia’s official membership in the BRICS economic bloc, Bisnis.com reported. Trump has previously threatened to impose a 100% import tariff on goods from BRICS nations if they proceed with de-dollarisation efforts.

Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat, Director of the China-Indonesia Desk at Celios, cautioned that Trump is known for following through on his statements. If the tariffs materialise, Indonesia’s economy could face turbulence in the short to medium term.

"This would cause a sharp decline in export volumes, particularly for products heavily reliant on the US market," Rakhmat explained on January 8.

He added that Trump’s reelection would likely escalate the US-China trade war, further slowing China’s economy. Celios Executive Director Bhima Yudhistira emphasised that Indonesia should not view BRICS membership solely as a means to strengthen ties with China.

“Indonesia could benefit more by building restorative economic cooperation with other BRICS countries, such as Brazil, and pursuing clean energy transition partnerships with South Africa,” Yudhistira noted.

He warned that if Indonesia’s approach remains overly China-centric, its BRICS membership might merely replicate the existing dominant economic relationship with China.

Celios researcher Yeta Purnama stressed the need for Indonesia to diversify its trade partnerships to weather future global economic uncertainties.

Purnama highlighted Indonesia’s potential role in fostering strategic collaborations in areas like investment and infrastructure development, catering to the needs of developing nations.

Additionally, Purnama urged the government to promote green investment cooperation and develop environmentally friendly capital markets. This would help counter the tendency of BRICS countries to invest in extractive industries.

“Multilateral cooperation has its benefits, but if it revolves around the same economic circle, any downturn in a dominant member's economy, such as China, could undermine domestic economic stability,” Purnama concluded. Indonesia’s full membership in BRICS was announced by the Brazilian government and warmly welcomed by Indonesia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Kemlu).

In a statement on January 7, Kemlu described the membership as a reflection of Indonesia’s active role in global issues and its commitment to fostering multilateral cooperation for a more inclusive and equitable global order.

“Indonesia sees its BRICS membership as a strategic step to enhance collaboration and cooperation with other developing countries based on principles of equality, mutual respect and sustainable development,” Kemlu explained.

This move underscores Indonesia’s increasing influence on the global stage while raising questions about how the nation will navigate the complex dynamics within the BRICS bloc and the broader global economy.