Iran is experiencing an unprecedented demographic shift as fertility rates hit a historic low of 1.6 children per woman in 2024, down from 6.5 in the 1980s, sparking concerns about the social and economic impact of an ageing population.

According to Iran's Statistics Centre, fertility rates have steadily declined from 2.09 children per woman in 2017 to 1.95 in 2018, 1.74 in 2019, 1.65 in 2020, and 1.61 in 2021, before stabilising at around 1.6 in 2023-24. This puts the country well below the replacement rate needed to maintain population levels and on the same trajectory as countries like Japan, Russia and Italy.

The trend is visible in cities and conurbations like Tehran and Borujerd, where in the latter, birth registrations dropped 8.5% in the first seven months of the current Iranian year. Of 2,398 births recorded in the first nine months, 1,310 were boys and 1,088 were girls. With a population of 343,140, it now has 41,899 residents aged over 60, representing 12.8% of its population.

In response, local authorities have established initiatives such as the Farzanegan Foundation, which serves about 2,000 elderly residents with educational, cultural, and health programmes. The city also launched a Population Status Office in December to monitor demographic trends and develop scientific solutions.

Government incentives to deal with an ageing population

The centre has already shown impact through its controversial “NAFAS” programme, which identified and provided special care for 19 potential abortion cases, resulting in 11 births.

"Iran's population ageing rate is steeper than many other countries," said Parvin Zeimanpour, Director of Social Affairs at Lorestan Province governorate.

She said that population growth should be promoted as a valuable cultural imperative, with religious leaders, local facilitators, and social activists working to convince families.

Dr Gholamreza Tajbakhsh, head of social sciences at Ayatollah Borujerdi University, highlighted that Iran's "demographic window" - which opened in 2005 and will last approximately four decades - represents a unique opportunity for economic development if properly managed.

Social researchers argue that successful population policies must balance both material and psychological incentives. "Material incentives alone cannot compensate for the increasing costs of raising children," said Parvin Zamani, a sociologist.

She stressed that policies must convince families of “both the spiritual and practical benefits” of having children, including support in old age.

"If current trends continue, the elderly population will triple by 2051, reaching 33% of the total population, up from today's 10%," Marzieh Vahid Dastjerdi told a national obstetrics conference. She warned that such demographic changes would pose significant social and economic challenges.

Declining birth rates in Iran

In a separate address, Mohammad Raiszadeh, head of Iran's Medical Council, highlighted the stark decline in birth rates. "In 1983, we recorded 2.2mn live births against 220,000 deaths. By 2024, live births have fallen to 1.057mn while deaths have risen to 440,000," he said.

Three provinces have already fallen into what officials term a "population trap", with extremely low replacement rates and growing elderly populations placing strain on the already under-pressure medical and care sector. If current trends persist, the country's population growth could reach zero by 2036, with deaths matching births, Raiszadeh warned.

Raiszadeh's comments were echoed by Akram Goli, CEO of Lord Care KTMA, Iran's largest elderly sector equipment manufacturer in Tehran, who said that orders for incontinence pads were increasing yearly. At the same time, the need to fit out houses with accessibility equipment has also increased, she said at a recent trade show on accessibility in the capital. 

"One of the issues we have found is that children of retired people left Iran more than a decade ago to places like Canada, Germany and France, while their parents remain in their family homes with little to no assistance," she said that the issue has only increased in recent years as the more children have called the company from abroad to help their parents. 

"Fewer children, better life"

"Until people's welfare and hope for the future improves, population trends will continue this way," said Omid, a Tehran resident, reflecting a common view linking economic conditions to family planning decisions.

Many respondents cited housing costs as a major deterrent. "If you want the situation to improve, the rental housing crisis must be resolved first," one commentator noted. Another, a healthcare worker on a temporary contract, explained: "After two years of marriage, we don't dare have children due to job insecurity. My hospital contract ends this year."

Others pointed to broader economic concerns. "People are struggling under the weight of inflation and high costs," said one respondent, while another argued: "Better to not increase the poor population."

Some took a different view, with one noting that "prosperous countries like the UAE and Qatar have small populations," suggesting population size may not correlate with national success.

The debate has also touched on social issues, with some commentators citing women's workforce participation as a factor, while others emphasised the need for proper infrastructure before pursuing population growth.

"Having and raising children comes with expenses and hardships," one resident noted to IntelliNews, while another simply repeated the old family planning slogan: "Fewer children, better life."

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