Iran’s latest moves in breaching the 2015 nuclear deal jeopardise a return of the US to the accord, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas warned on February 18.

“The more pressure is applied, the more difficult it gets to find a political solution,” Maas said. He added that talks “are being significantly complicated at the moment because Iran obviously does not seek de-escalation but escalation—and this is playing with fire”.

Iran said on February 15 that it will block snap inspections of its nuclear development programme by the UN nuclear watchdog from next week if other parties to the nuclear deal (formally the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA) do not uphold their obligations. US President Joe Biden has said he will revive the accord—designed to ensure Iran’s nuclear programme is kept entirely civilian—by taking Washington back into it, but he wants Iran to verifiably restore compliance with it first. Tehran says that before that can happen it wants the US to first lift its sanctions on Tehran. It points out that Biden’s predecessor, Donald Trump, broke international diplomatic convention by unilaterally walking out of the multilateral JCPOA in May 2018 at a time when the UN inspectors said Iran was in full compliance with it. Thus, goes Iran’s reasoning, it is up to the US to show the initial good faith by dropping the heavy sanctions that Trump brought in an attempt at achieving his Iran objectives.

Also on February 18, European Council President Charles Michel said he had spoken to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and that the European Union backed full implementation of the JCPOA between Iran and major world powers.

"I spoke with President @HassanRouhani. The EU supports the full implementation of the #JCPOA. Preserving a space for diplomacy, underpinned by positive steps, is crucial at this stage," Michel tweeted.

The US has lately gradually shifted its position to acknowledge that it is prepared to hold direct talks with Tehran over how both sides can come back into strict compliance with the JCPOA terms.

Washington revealed its willingness to hold talks in a joint statement issued by the US Secretary of State Tony Blinken and the foreign ministers of France, Germany and the UK—the three European powers that remain signatories of the accord. Blinken spoke to Qatar’s foreign minister, before the latter travelled to Iran this week as a mediator.

The joint statement also emphasised that after Iran and the US return to full compliance with the JCPOA, the three European nations would want to see the accord strengthened by an effort to address broader security concerns, something that Tehran has shown no willingness to accept. However, the fact that the European members of the deal would accept this effort being made some way down the road may mean that the objective would not become an obstacle to an accord revival.

The US may have to offer something more concrete either in direct talks or through intermediaries for Iran to hold off next week from withdrawing from the nuclear inspection regime that the UN nuclear inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Authority (IAEA) work to.

Iran’s president, Hassan Rouhani, said on February 18 that it was simply propaganda to present the situation as Iran putting pressure on the US. He argued that Tehran was only asking Washington to comply with the law. In a message directed at Biden, he said: “Surrendering to law is not a fault. Do not shy away. What is bad is surrendering to force.”

Biden, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, are all expected to address the Munich Security Conference on February 19. They might use the opportunity to send messages to Iran.

Biden will tread carefully in not wanting to be perceived as making an offer to Iran because of Iranian pressure, but analysts have suggested the US could get relations with Tehran on a better track by lifting its opposition to an IMF loan to Iran, scrapping some US restrictions placed on Iranian assets in overseas bank accounts and easing the flow of humanitarian aid. Iran has said it may be facing a fourth wave of coronavirus.

Late on February 18, in what may be seen as a friendly gesture to Tehran, the US informed the United Nations Security Council that it was rescinding a Trump administration assertion that all UN sanctions had been reimposed on Iran in September last year. The previous month, former US secretary of state Mike Pompeo asserted that he had triggered a 30-day process at the Security Council that led to the return of UN sanctions on Iran and stopped a conventional arms embargo on Tehran from expiring on October 18. The other Security Council members rejected Pompeo's claim.

Biden spoke to the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, for the first time since his inauguration on the night of February 17. Netanyahu reiterated his opposition to the US returning to the nuclear deal.