The nightly mass protests in Georgia have drawn comparisons to Ukraine's EuroMaidan revolution of 2013-2014. Sporadic and relatively low key protests after the October general election suddenly gained momentum after Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced that Georgia would temporarily abandon its efforts to join the European Union. 

Similarities with Ukraine’s Maidan uprising, which led to the ousting of pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych, are becoming increasingly clear, both in the motivations behind the unrest and the scale and intensity of the opposition protests. 

In both countries the protests were directed at a leader with links to Russia who was attempting to pull the country away from its pro-EU aspirations. In Georgia, the targets are the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party, in power since 2012 and its oligarch founder Bidzina Ivanishvili.  

The response in both countries was mass resistance from the population, most of whom are fiercely pro-EU. In Georgia, this resistance became explosive after Kobakhidze announced that Georgia would suspend its EU membership bid until 2028, rejecting EU funding in the meantime. Given that EU integration has been a cornerstone of Georgian foreign policy – it is even enshrined in the country’s constitution –  the government’s decision triggered widespread anger.

The protests in Georgia, though still in their early stages, are gathering steam. In one of the largest demonstrations, nearly 200,000 people flooded the streets of Tbilisi. Reports from bne IntelliNews, which has correspondents on the ground, suggest that the protests are becoming increasingly organised. 

As the opposition grows bolder, the government’s response has been a violent crackdown, with riot police and special forces deploying increasingly brutal tactics to disperse protesters. However, far from intimidating the demonstrators, these actions have only served to radicalise them further. There are reports of protesters blasting fireworks at the parliament building, creating flaming barricades from benches and rubbish bins, and banding together to push back police units. 

Maidan in mind

Politicians in both Georgia and Russia are clearly aware of potential parallels between Georgia and Ukraine, which has seen two revolutions since the fall of communism. 

"Probably the most direct parallel we can draw is the events of the Maidan in Ukraine, all the signs of an attempt to carry out an 'orange revolution,'" Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov told journalists on December 2, as reported by Russia’s RIA Novosti. 

Russian officials have long been wary of the pro-EU aspirations of Georgia, as well as other countries it sees as part of its sphere of influence such as Moldova and Ukraine. 

Earlier this year, when Georgia was wracked by mass protests over the controversial, Russia-inspired “foreign agents” law, Kobakhidze said he would not allow a Maidan to happen in the country. 

Ukraine provides a historical reference point for understanding Georgia’s current crisis. The Orange Revolution was sparked by allegations of widespread electoral fraud favouring pro-Russian candidate Viktor Yanukovych. The movement was a response to attempts by Russia to control Ukraine’s political trajectory. 

Nearly a decade later, the 2013-2014 EuroMaidan Revolution broke out after Yanukovych, who had been elected in 2010, reversed plans to sign an association agreement with the European Union, a decision that was widely seen as succumbing to pressure from Moscow. This caused mass protests in Kyiv, which ultimately led to Yanukovych’s ouster and set Ukraine on a more pro-European path.

The protesters, initially gathering in Maidan Nezalezhnosti (Independence Square), were violently dispersed by police. The unrest spread to other parts of Ukraine, and by January 2014 the demonstrations had escalated into full-blown riots. Yanukovych’s subsequent enactment of laws restricting the right to protest only fuelled the unrest, which ultimately led to deadly confrontations, with hundreds injured and dozens killed. 103 people were killed in February 2014, including 50 on February 20, the deadliest day of the protest. 

Western powers imposed sanctions on Yanukovych’s government, while opposition forces in western Ukraine seized government buildings. These events culminated in an agreement between Yanukovych and opposition leaders, brokered by the EU, which called for early elections and the formation of a unity government. However, Yanukovych’s political support had already collapsed. He fled Kyiv, and the Ukrainian parliament quickly moved to impeach him, ending his presidency, though he continued to insist from the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don that he remained Ukraine’s president. 

Nightly protests

In Georgia, the current protests are being driven by a combination of factors, including widespread frustration over election fraud, as well as the government's announcement to suspend its EU membership bid. Protesters are demanding new elections under international supervision, as many believe the vote, which returned Georgian Dream for yet another term in power, was rigged. 

Every night since Kobakhidze’s announcement, tens of thousands have rallied in Tbilisi, and demonstrations have now spread to other cities, including Batumi, Kutaisi and Rustavi, as well as smaller villages. Students across Georgia are striking in solidarity with the protesters. 

Protesters carry blue EU flags as well as the white flag with red crosses of Georgia. President Salome Zourabichvili and other opposition leaders have repeatedly claimed Russia was involved in helping Georgian Dream rig the October general election. Zourabichvili claimed on December 2 that Russia is carrying out a hybrid war against Georgia and other countries in its near neighbourhood, and appealed to the West for support. 

The violent police crackdown has drawn widespread condemnation, both domestically and internationally. Diplomats, civil servants and even government officials have expressed their support for the protesters and Georgia's European aspirations. 

As in Ukraine in 2013-14, the Georgian authorities have become increasingly heavy-handed in trying to suppress the protests. 

bne IntelliNews’ reporters on the ground in Tbilisi say the demonstrations on December 1 and 2 were met with unprecedented brutality, with police also chasing protesters into residential areas, far beyond the traditionally protected protest zones. On the morning of December 2, one of our Tbilisi-based correspondents reported shocked commuters witnessing “dozens of protesters darting between the standstill rush hour traffic on Tbilisi’s busiest arteries, EU and Georgian flags streaming behind them, pursued by police in balaclavas”.

12 years in power

Georgian Dream has been in power since 2012. Initially positioned as a pro-European party, it has shifted in recent years towards a more Eurosceptic and culturally conservative stance. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Georgian government has become increasingly close to Russia, presenting this ahead of the October 2024 general election as an essential strategy to avoid another war. 

Until November 28, the party remained popular in large parts of the country, even though its support among urban voters and the younger generation has waned significantly. As reported by bne IntelliNews, while there is overwhelming evidence of ballot studding and other forms of electoral fraud in the October 28 election, the party had a genuine high level of support in the regions. 

It was only the announcement that Tbilisi would temporarily abandon its EU path that – just like in Ukraine in 2013 – brought people onto the streets across the country. 

The fate of Georgia’s protests and whether they will, like in Ukraine, lead to the ousting of the country’s increasingly pro-Russian leadership, remains unclear. But what has become clear is that Georgian protesters are just as committed as their counterparts in Ukraine a decade ago to continuing their resistance.