Turkey-backed jihadist groups supported by combat drones sent in by the Turkish armed forces have been attacking the town of Manbij in northern Syria held by Kurdish groups, footage continued to show on December 9.

On December 8, just a few hours after Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) declared Syria’s Assad regime was overthrown, the jihadist groups—which are units within the Syrian National Army (SNA, formerly the Free Syrian Army FSA/OSO)—launched an offensive against the US-backed and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) that control the Rojava region.

In the years prior to the Aleppo offensive that quickly culminated in an advance that caused the fall of the Assad regime at the weekend, the HTS dwelled and evolved under the patronage of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s regime on the border with Turkey, while the SNA was directly established by Ankara.

Actin together, the HTS and SNA launched the surprise Aleppo offensive on November 27, a few hours after a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon took effect.

Within 12 days, they took over Damascus without facing significant resistance from Assad’s forces. Military analysts assess that in terms of their rate of conquest, they may have broken the record set by the Taliban, which took over Afghanistan in 2021 within three and a half months.

Next stop Iraq?

The Russians look like they may have already traded Syria in the hope of securing some gains in other matters (perhaps the calculation is related to Ukraine, where a ceasefire is cooking with Donald Trump on his way back to the White House on January 20). Iran, meanwhile, has failed to mobilise its proxies in Lebanon, namely Hezbollah, and in Iraq, namely Hasdh-i Shabi.

Since Hamas launched its kamikaze cross-border strike from Gaza against Israel on  October 7 last year, Iran has lost its influence in Palestine, Lebanon and Syria. With the fall of Syria, it has also lost its land route connection to Palestine and Lebanon via Syrian territory. Both Palestine and Lebanon are under an Israeli naval and air blockade.

The next stop for Israel, prior to Tehran, looks like Iran’s proxies in Iraq.

Tayyip the Conqueror

If the security conditions allow for it, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan will soon visit Damascus, where he will pray at the Umayyad Mosque in the former Syrian capital (we can say “former capital” because it is questionable right now as to whether a country called Syria still exists).

On December 5, bne IntelliNews reported that the Erdogan regime was hailing its “reconquest of Aleppo”.

This publication also recalled that Erdogan said in 2012, the year after the Syrian conflict ignited: “We’ll go to Damascus soon, inshallah… and we’ll pray at Umayyad Mosque.”

On December 7, this publication reported that Erdogan had set Damascus as the final target for his jihadists.

The Erdogan regime plainly sees the latest developments as Erdogan’s victory over Bashar Assad. That’s not particularly wrongheaded if things are evaluated from a perspective that takes what was a 13-year-long battle between two neighbouring autocrats into account.

In 2011, Erdogan participated in the coalition that came together to overthrow Assad. As of December 2024, Erdogan remains the ruler in Ankara, with his proxies having forced Assad to flee to Moscow.

For those who keep an eye on the mouthpieces of the Erdogan regime, it would be no surprise if Erdogan crowns himself as “Tayyip the Conqueror” at the Umayyad Mosque.

His media will, in any case, go live during his prayers and his trolls will decode the message.

On December 9, cement stocks on Borsa Istanbul jumped to celebrate the boss’ booty, namely Syria, which needs to be reconstructed.

Will Erdogan conquer the Eastern Euphrates too?

Manbij is now the only territory held by the Kurds on the western bank of the Euphrates river since, on December 4, they left some territory, including the town of Tal Rifat, to Erdogan’s jihadists.

Until the fall of Damascus, no significant clash between Erdogan's jihadists and the Kurds in this wave of conflict had taken place as the jihadists were too busy targeting the Assad regime.

The Erdogan regime has for a while now been holding talks with Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Ocalan, who has been imprisoned in Turkey since 1999. The direction of the latest round of bargaining with the PKK, designated “terrorist” by Ankara, will be tested out by the developments in Syria.

Since Assad fled, Erdogan and his henchmen have been focusing on the Kurds.

In the years since Moscow intervened in Syria in 2015, Russia and the US have divided its airspace. The US controls the airspace in the eastern Euphrates region.

Consequently, the land held by Kurds on the western bank of the river do not enjoy US cover.

So, the real question is whether Trump will sacrifice the eastern Euphrates region when the Erdogan regime targets it after finishing its business on the western bank by taking over Manbij.

Syrian migrants in Turkey not eager to live under “Taliban II”

Erdogan’s officials have been circulating the idea that the Syrians who fled their homeland for Turkey are now in a rush to return to their country following the exit of Assad.

Based on official Turkish figures, there are around 3-4mn Syrians in Turkey. The actual figure is widely estimated to be around 5-7mn.

The return to Syria of a few thousand pro-jihadist Syrians would not put a dent in the massive problem posed to Turkey by hosting such a huge migrant population.

Looking beyond only Syrians, the total number of irregular immigrants in Turkey is estimated as standing at above 10mn, including 1-2mn Afghans and millions of people from African and other Asian countries.

These people are not in Turkey by choice. Turkey is on the route to Europe. They are largely working and saving up money in Turkey to pay human smugglers who will take them on to developed countries.

Prior to the jihadist takeover of Syria, videos showing beaches and parties in the country got plenty of “hits” and “clicks” in Turkey. Within two weeks, the country has been turned upside down.

Under the rule of the jihadists, Syria will become a second Afghanistan. It will not be an attractive spot for people that dream of a normal life.

What to expect now?

Syria is still in chaos. It is unknown whether the jihadists will be able to put together a functioning state anytime soon.

Opportunistic Israel, meanwhile, has been expanding the Syrian territory it controls in the south (purple on the map), while bombing ammunition sites and equipment left behind by Syria's army.

The Russians have been withdrawing but they still have some personnel and equipment left at their military bases on the Mediterranean coast.

The jihadists have so far not fought each other. In the coming days, as the diplomatic bargaining on the future of the country intensifies, those doing the bargaining—the list currently includes the US, Russia, Iran, Turkey, the UAE, Israel, Qatar and Saudi Arabia among others—will mobilise their proxies among the jihadists to strengthen their hand at the table.

Looking at where we are now, there are presently jihadists (green on the map) and Kurds (yellow) in the country, in addition to limited areas held by Israel and Islamic State (black).

The situation in Syria is precarious and will definitely not stabilise in the coming months, and perhaps not in the coming years.