Jobs in green sectors are rapidly increasing, with the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) reporting 13.7mn direct and indirect renewable energy jobs globally in 2022. Solar energy has led the way, making up over one-third of the total. China holds 41% of these jobs, according to IRENA, reported the Financial Times (FT).

The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that by 2030, 8mn new clean energy jobs will be created worldwide, while 2.5mn positions in fossil fuels will disappear. This results in a net gain of 5.7mn jobs, but challenges remain, said the newspaper.

A recent OECD study showed that although highly skilled green jobs, such as engineers and carbon traders, tend to offer better pay, lower-skilled roles in areas like recycling and transport do not see the same benefits. There are also concerns about how the shift impacts communities as jobs relocate, as well as the fact that many green sectors are less unionised, said the FT.

Experts stress the need for careful labour market management during this transition. "We must ensure labour market policy supports those directly impacted by the green transition," Stefano Scarpetta, head of OECD employment, told the newspaper

The OECD’s latest Employment Outlook reveals that over 25% of jobs in member countries will be significantly affected by net-zero policies, both positively and negatively. In the EU, jobs in emissions-heavy industries, like fossil fuel energy and energy-intensive manufacturing, are expected to decrease by 14% by 2030. Though these jobs represent a smaller share of the overall workforce, they are often well-paid and unionised.

The green transition occurs alongside other challenges such as AI and automation, which are transforming jobs in unpredictable ways. “In the Industrial Revolution, it was easier to pinpoint the driving forces. This transition is far more complex,” Moustapha Gueye from the International Labour Organisation, told the FT.

In South Africa's Mpumalanga Province, the shutdown of the Komati coal power plant in 2022 has been a key example of how coal-reliant countries manage the shift to green energy. Supported by a $2.2mn grant from the Bezos Earth Fund, 250 workers have been retrained in renewable technologies such as solar installation and battery storage, with 400 more expected to be certified by November.

“Many were initially concerned about their jobs but are now more optimistic,” said Andrew Steer, CEO of the Bezos Earth Fund.

Shoki Mbowane, a former technician at Komati, told the FT about the challenge of transitioning to green energy skills. “It was daunting at first since I knew nothing about renewables," she said. "Some colleagues chose to move to other plants instead of retraining, but I’m glad I made this decision.”

South Africa, which still derives 85% of its electricity from coal, secured an $8.5bn deal in 2021 from countries like the US and UK to help fund its climate transition. "What happens here offers lessons for other countries," said Steer of the Bezos Earth Fund.

However, opposition from coal advocates remains strong. South Africa’s mineral resources minister Gwede Mantashe has called the idea that coal’s time is over “a myth,” warning that poorly managed transitions could create "ghost towns."

In the US, advocates are optimistic about President Joe Biden’s pro-clean-energy Inflation Reduction Act, which provides $369bn in subsidies to create green jobs, particularly in coal-dependent regions, with wages comparable with fossil fuel industries. “Historically, wages could be lower, but these incentives are promising,” Katie Harris of the BlueGreen Alliance said to the FT.

However, not all initiatives have succeeded. Danish wind company Ørsted scrapped two projects in New Jersey, dashing hopes for local job creation. “My town really needs jobs,” said Gary Stevenson, former mayor of Paulsboro, where an Ørsted would have been built. A long-time fossil fuel supporter, he acknowledged the need to move forward.

Union leaders are also concerned about representation in green industries. "We're worried that the low-carbon economy is not unionised enough," Kan Matsuzaki of the IndustriALL Global Union told the FT. “Many new companies dominate this market, and union presence is lacking.”

With the UN COP climate summit approaching in Baku, Azerbaijan on November 11, green transition advocates hope workforce training and job creation will become central to climate action plans. “Governments and businesses need to act now,” Binnu Jeyakumar of the Powering Past Coal Alliance said to the FT.