"He made me look ridiculous. A man in my position can't afford to be made to look ridiculous" Jack Woltz to Tam Hagen, The Godfather.

Prigozhin’s tantrum over the weekend made everyone look ridiculous, most of all his patron in the Kremlin and all those trying to find method to his madness. So there I was, grasping at straws and resorting to vodka in a futile attempt to find some semblance of logic in the whirlwind of events that had unfolded in Putin's Russia over the past four days. Frustrated by the confounding nature of it all and completely betrayed by vodka’s magical power to bring lucidity to all matters Russian, I instinctively turned to my weapon of last resort, "The Godfather," in a quest for clarity in a coup that really wasn’t in a country that resembles a functioning state less and less. Amid the political chaos, I find that the ruthless world depicted in the mafia epic offers a more authentic lens through which to examine and comprehend Putin's Russia than the dry analysis of scholarly treatises.

In my view, analysts often try to decipher the inexplicable based on a core misunderstanding of the Russian zeitgeist. This leads to predictions that are often mere guesswork influenced by questionable information processed through a Western mindset. Their prognostications being right is more a function of luck than true insight and understanding of Russia’s heart and soul. Regarding historical accounts, Russian narratives are often crafted to please the whims of the ruler of the moment, be it a czar, a general secretary of the Politburo, or a small KGB colonel caught in over his head. Western accounts often fall victim to a lack of documented factual information and the same Western analytic bias, which stubbornly believes that Russia and Russians are just like Westerners, only with crappy weather and better literature and ballet. Invariably, both analysts and historians refuse to even contemplate that Russia functions in a manner foreign to Western expectations. It resembles less a state and more like a criminal organisation, and that leads to failure to draw the right conclusions.

"The Godfather," however, transcends the limitations of guesswork and fabricated narratives. It stands as an enduring masterpiece, meticulously chronicling the rise of Vito Corleone from the depths of poverty to the heights of the criminal world and the subsequent descent of his son Michael from a wartime hero into its treacherous underworld. When dissecting Putin's regime, it becomes increasingly evident that its resemblance to the Mafia is far more striking than its semblance of a well-functioning government of a modern state. Recent events have unequivocally reaffirmed this assertion, leaving no room for doubt. Those, myself included, who tried to ascribe deep political astuteness to Prigozhin on Saturday woke up with egg on their face on Sunday, when it turned out that there was no real thought, much less political, in any of his actions.

The most interesting, if completely farcical, explanation of the entire affair was offered by Ramzan Kadyrov, whose troops, invariably, were once again last to the battle and first to claim success. He wrote an extensive post claiming that Prigozhin’s actions were driven by recent business deals gone bad, including his daughter not getting a coveted piece of land in St. Petersburg. I will not comment on the veracity of the claim, as it is silly and irrelevant to my point. The mere fact that someone who is considered a top politician can even think to offer this lunacy as a viable explanation for Prigozhin’s actions is proof of the shallowness of the intellectual waters plied by the “political elites.” You may say that Ramzan is just being Ramzan, tongue firmly in cheek, and not serious about what he is writing. To which I answer, read any commentary from every “politician” that beat back a hasty retreat to Moscow from whatever foreign land their private jet took them in the heat of Saturday’s impromptu performance by Prigozhin’s orchestra.

Prigozhin’s outburst shattered the last remnants of Putin’s regime as a political entity, further exposing the lies and reinforcing the image of a criminal mentality rather than statesmanship. The more they speak in an effort to explain or downplay what happened, the more lies are revealed, and the clearer the picture of a criminal rather than a statesman mentality is revealed. Observing Putin stammering about the heroic efforts of the military in silencing the musicians is a lesson in incredulity, as the soldiers’ unwillingness to fight was amply documented. In his effort to deflect blame, he stumbles into openly acknowledging that the Russian state has allocated $1bn in 2023 to finance the Wagner group. This is noteworthy, considering his prior denial of the group's existence or the state’s involvement in propping it up.

To put this into perspective, here are the annual budgets of some of Russia’s largest cities: Kazan ($473mn), Voronezh ($490mn), Rostov ($675mn), Krasnodar ($812mn), Ekaterinburg ($828mn) and Novosibirsk ($952mn). You will hear gubernatorial declamations that they would have destroyed Wagner completely had Prigozhin not turned back voluntarily. The fact that the Police, National Guard and military either laid down their arms or refused to fight altogether or simply evacuated cities in anticipation of Wagner’s arrival has already been forgotten. The piece de resistance, of course, is Lukashenko recounting how, in a manner most reminiscent of mafia “тёрки,” or “sit-downs,” he negotiated with Prigozhin, with 90% of the language consisting of obscenities. He presented this as a point of pride, an attribute that will be appreciated by his audience and his “electorate.”

Recent events resembled Michael’s trip to Cuba in “Godfather II.” Hymen Roth, as Putin, is the old man who wants to double-cross him but refuses to see the reality of what is happening in Cuba. He is too old, too withdrawn and too enamoured with the prospects of the gold that he stands to profit to see the situation clearly. Fredo, like Prigozhin, provides the ultimate betrayal, catching Michael off-guard by selling him out to Roth. It has Michael’s last-minute retreat from what could have been the ultimate prize of legitimising the Corleone family. Try an experiment – treat yourself over the weekend and watch the two films and listen to the great dialogue, and picture Putin or anyone of his cronies uttering the words, and you will begin to understand how Russia is run.

A word of caution, however. Don’t get carried away. Don Vito, Michael, Hymen Roth, Tom Hagen and the other vivid characters in the film are true political powerhouses. They have clear goals, formulate brilliant strategies and employ surgical tactics to achieve their ultimate vision. Putin and his crew offer nothing but cowardice and unbridled avarice. The ultra-nationalist correspondents have acknowledged as much, walking away from a recent “sit-down” with the old man shocked by his lack of vision and comprehension about the true state of affairs in Russia and the war. Doubts about him drinking the Kool-Aid served by his propaganda machine were dismissed as calls for a change in leadership started emerging among patriotic Z-activists. Even those closest to the halls of power privately acknowledge that they have no idea of what is happening and what, if anything, Putin is thinking.

Don Vito and Michael, provided that they would have let the Corleone family affairs deteriorate to such an extent, would have dealt with Prigozhin and his merry band of mutineers in the manner prescribed by Sun Tzu and Machiavelli. Putin’s refusal to treat Prigozhin in a manner befitting a traitor only highlights his weakness and the lack of unity within the regime he created.

His refusal to put down a rabid dog does not seem to be a reflection of his desire, as he is infamous for his intolerance of treachery. It is rather an affirmation of his weakness and of powerful elements within his government that may be holding back his hand. The same can be said of his inability to deal with Shoigu, a man who has proven his abject incompetence as a Defence Minister time and again, yet Putin either refuses or is unable to replace him. The labyrinth of lies that have been created to keep Putin isolated and docile has come back to bite him and his handlers at the worst possible moment.

Jack Woltz understood that anyone in a position of power cannot afford to look ridiculous if they are to stay in power. Putin and the political machine he created cannot seem to look ridiculous and incompetent. In any other situation, if tens of thousands of lives were not on the line, this would provide exceptional theatre; in the current environment, not so much. Prigozhin signals the start of Putin’s problems, not the end, and the West needs to wake up to the fact that it is dealing with a fragmented criminal clan and not a functioning country. This realisation will do everyone a world of good.

Alexander Kabanovsky is formerly a Russia-based banker and entrepreneur. This article first appeared on his substack “Thinking Out Loud”.