A significant leadership struggle is brewing within Belarus’ democratic opposition in exile, as a faction led by former Coordination Council (CC) speaker Andrey Yahorau challenges the authority of opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, Focus on Belarus reported on August 20.

The group is pushing to reassert its influence in shaping the civil society agenda, after a dispute broke out amongst the opposition leadership on how to deal with political prisoners. Previously the policy had been to work to oust Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko and get all the prisoners released at once, but following the historic prisoner swap was completed on August 1 and saw several top Russian dissidents released, some in the Belarusian opposition want to see similar like-for-like swap deals done.

Yahorau and his colleagues have also raised concerns about the opposition's readiness for the next presidential elections in Belarus next summer after Lukashenko's five-year term expires and the risk of missing a critical moment to mobilise society.

Opponents of Tikhanovskaya are advocating for a review of her leadership and have proposed holding elections for the leader of the democratic forces. This internal discord is escalating amid intense debates on strategies for securing the release of political prisoners, a key issue for the opposition. There is an ongoing effort to form a coalition of political organisations that prioritises the plight of these prisoners.

The challenge to Tikhanovskaya’s leadership intensified following the third convocation of the Coordination Council, the opposition's formal governing body. The so-called "Prokopiev-Yahorau bloc," which secured the second-largest number of mandates, found itself marginalised within the council. Despite Yahorau's previous role as speaker, the coalition led by former Belarusian minister Pavel Latushka, which is aligned with Tikhanovskaya, has effectively side-lined this bloc. The coalition has revised the organisation's statute to its advantage, electing a speaker and vice-speaker from within its own ranks and further diminishing the minority faction's influence.

In response, Tikhanovskaya’s team is working to mitigate the reputational damage resulting from recent events, including the exclusion of Belarusian political prisoners from a high-profile prisoner exchange between the Kremlin and Western nations. This has been a point of contention among the opposition and its supporters.

As bne IntelliNews reported, despite the Russian deal including, Rico Krieger, a 30-year-old German national, who was in a Belarusian jail and had been sentenced to death in June on espionage charges, the Belarusian opposition was not included in any of the discussions between the US and Russia on the deal. It is widely believed that Lukashenko arrested Krieger at the behest of Russian President Vladimir Putin in order to put pressure on Berlin, which held the key Russian prisoner, the FSB hitman Vadim Krasikov. The more than a thousand domestic political prisoners in Lukashenko’s jails were of no interest to the international community. The Russian deal was made up largely of Russian spies and hackers who were traded for leading Russian opposition leaders and a few US and German citizens.

Meanwhile, the Belarusian democratic forces have succeeded in easing the impact of Lithuania’s stricter regulations on the movement of Belarusians, securing concessions that adjusted entry rules for passenger cars with Belarusian licence plates. Efforts are also being made to keep Belarus-related issues on the international agenda, exemplified by a joint article by Tikhanovskaya and U.S. Ambassador-at-Large for Global Criminal Justice, Beth Van Schaack, published in The Hill.

As internal tensions and mutual accusations rise, the Lukashenko regime is actively preparing for its presidential campaign next August. However, instead of focusing on strategies for this crucial battle, the democratic forces are increasingly preoccupied with the internal debate over Tikhanovskaya’s leadership. This inward focus threatens to further alienate their political base and diminish their influence within Belarus.