Lebanon stands on the brink of a new political phase following the election of President Joseph Aoun, who pledged in his inaugural speech to work towards building a state based on institutions, under the rule of law and the judiciary. President Aoun affirmed his intention to exercise his powers as head of state impartially, stressing the importance of making the possession of weapons exclusive to the state and adhering to the ceasefire agreement with Israel.

Yet, the question remains: will President Aoun press Hezbollah to surrender?

Interview with Brigadier General Hisham Jaber for IntelliNews

Brigadier General Hisham Jaber stated: According to the inaugural speech, President Aoun seeks to place weapons in the hands of the Lebanese state. President Joseph Aoun intends to establish a comprehensive national strategy, encompassing development, economic, and diplomatic aspects, with a primary focus on a defensive strategy.

Jaber explained that the defensive strategy is being developed by military experts, with its core being the Lebanese Army, which will be supplemented in times of war by non-regular military organisations, whose weapons will all be under the supervision of the military institution. In peacetime, these groups will operate normally, and in times of war, they will report to their designated centres within 72 hours.

He noted that this strategy is not limited to Hezbollah, but involves all citizens in various regions to defend their areas, with weapons stored in armouries and distributed when security is compromised or Lebanon is attacked by an external enemy.

Jaber said that all of this is under the command of the state, represented by the Supreme Defence Council, the highest authority, which includes the Presidents of the Republic and the Government and several ministers. This is followed by the Army command, which supervises the organisation of these forces in times of emergency or war.

Jaber clarified that, in times of war, all regular and legal armed forces, including the Army, General Security, the Gendarmerie, Customs, and Forest Officers, will be mobilised. Regarding non-regular forces, such as Hezbollah, which is the largest, it will surrender its heavy weapons to the Lebanese state, while retaining light weapons in the homes of its members if they have permits for those arms. These members will continue their regular activities.

Jaber asserted that Hezbollah is ready and willing to implement this strategy, although he pointed out that it will require time. After a president is elected, a government must be formed, and then a working group of military experts will be convened to prepare the defensive strategy, which will be approved by the government, then presented to the parliament, allowing for community participation and potential amendments, before it is eventually legislated.

He concluded, affirming that Hezbollah is in agreement with this plan, saying: "On my responsibility, the party is ready and agrees."

Contradiction Between Positions and Reality

The contradiction between Hezbollah's statements on the "Army, People, and Resistance Triad" and the reality of its efforts to disarm and transform into a political party has become clear. While the party continues to promote media slogans to maintain its image with its supporters, the reality shows that Hezbollah has long decided to transition into a political party, which was evident in its participation in the election of President Aoun.

Hezbollah is now under both internal and international pressure to comply with UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which calls for the disarmament of militias. The party had previously asked President Nabih Berri to negotiate with US envoy Amos Hochstein for a ceasefire and is willing to make concessions to avoid returning to war with Israel. These concessions may include the gradual surrender of its weapons under the supervision of the Lebanese state.

In this context, Dr. Hadi Murad, journalist and founder of the prominent Shia opposition movement challenging the dominance of the Shia duo Hezbollah and Amal, spoke with IntelliNews. Murad confirmed that the party "is moving towards surrendering its weapons, but this will occur within the framework of a new government that could be headed by Najib Mikati. Over the next year and a half, we may witness substantial progress in this context."

He further pointed out that the party "has begun a gradual media battle, as it is no longer able to confront the public with claims of possessing an excess of power to the extent of controlling the direction of the next president, as it previously asserted. Today, its rhetoric has shifted from defiance to attempts to deny any intention to surrender its weapons."

Murad continued that informing the party’s base about the decision to surrender the weapons could take about a year, with the party justifying this as becoming part of the state and government, thus transferring the weapons to the state.

He stressed: "We hear many voices within the Shia community calling for a liberation movement rhetoric against Hezbollah, rejecting subordination to any foreign authority, especially Iranian rule, which has destroyed Lebanon and dismantled the social contract between the Shia and other Lebanese sects."

Murad concluded: "Our presence is vital in shaping a new vision for Lebanon’s Shia, one that diverges entirely from the Iranian project, which has exploited them for its own interests rather than for the national interests of Lebanon."

This is Lebanon's Final Test

With regional changes and both international and domestic pressures, it appears Lebanon is facing a real test in achieving the rule of law and unifying weapons under the state’s authority. Hezbollah, which has long regarded its weapons as an integral part of its political strength, will face a challenging phase that will require it to reposition itself within the Lebanese political system. The next phase will be crucial for Lebanon to demonstrate its ability to overcome internal divisions, achieve political stability, and secure national sovereignty.