The upcoming March 2024 presidential election in Russia has taken an unexpected turn with the late emergence of Boris Nadezhdin, an anti-war liberal candidate who has rapidly become popular with the opposition.

Despite being widely seen as a spoiler candidate strategically permitted by the Kremlin to enter the race to showcase the alleged lack of support for the opposition, Nadezhdin has experienced a surge in popularity within certain sections of society. Photos of long queues at his campaign offices across Russia have dominated liberal media, depicting people waiting to sign in support of his candidacy to fulfil the requirement of securing at least 100,000 signatures before being allowed onto the ballot.

Nadezhdin, a seasoned figure in Russian politics with a history dating back to the 1990s, is the only candidate in the race advocating an end to the conflict in Ukraine. However, it has been argued that his candidacy is a tactic of the authorities aimed at capturing a portion of the genuine anti-Kremlin vote and undermining the credibility of liberal politics in Russia. Nadezdin, formerly a close ally of the murdered opposition politician Boris Nemtsov, has been associated with various liberal parties since the 1990s, including the Union of Right Forces, Right Cause and Civic Initiative. Many believe that the decision to allow him to run in 2024 mirrors past elections where Kremlin-backed candidates played the role of spoilers, securing a small percentage of the vote to diminish the strength of the liberal opposition.

However, despite the belief of many that Nadezhdin is a Kremlin-approved candidate, influential opposition figures, including exiled political figures such as Maxim Katz, Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Ivan Zhdanov (head of Alexei Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation), have urged their supporters to endorse the liberal candidate. They view supporting Nadezhdin as a legal way for Russian voters to express their opposition to the war while staying within the country.

On his campaign website, Nadezhdin identifies as a "principled opponent of the policies of the current president," with a significant emphasis on the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. His website asserts that Putin "made a fatal mistake by initiating the special military operation" and advocates for Moscow to "initiate peace negotiations with Ukraine and the West."

Despite the belief in many quarters that Nadezhdin has received approval from the Kremlin itself, political analyst Fedor Krasheninnikov told the Riga-based outlet Meduza that it is unlikely Russia’s Central Election Commission will approve Nadezhdin’s candidacy. This will likely be justified by suggestions that the signatures he collected were not legitimate. 

“Nadezhdin wasn’t immediately axed because he seemed utterly hopeless. Now, with all the fuss around him involving figures detested by the Kremlin, I see no reason they would register him,” he said.