Lithuanians go to the polls on Sunday in an election in which the unpopular centre-right government will almost certainly be thrown out, but voters seem undecided and unenthusiastic about the alternatives.

Regardless of who you talk to, the frontrunner is clearly the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party (LSDP). But its reputation as “the inevitable victor” can damage the party, and it often appears ambivalent about seizing power. The party failed to nominate a candidate for the presidential elections in May and instead supported incumbent Gitanas Nauseda, which infuriated some of their voters. Nauseda has given the party at best equivocal support since his re-election.

In addition, 64-year-old LSDP leader Vilija Blinkeviciute said she was not considering being the country’s new prime minister if the Social Democrats win, but now she appears to be warming to the idea. The LSDP is only running at around 18%, according to opinion polls, hardly putting it in a strong position to dictate future coalition talks.

The much-talked-about radical rightwing “Dawn of the River Neman” party with its outspoken leader Remigijus Zemaitaitis has fought a much more dynamic campaign, propelling it to second place in the polls with around 12%. It, rather than the LSDP, has been the main collector of protest votes and it could be a wildcard or at least a big spoiler on election night, forcing the other parties to come together to form a workable government. There is even speculation that there could be a grand coalition between the country's two big parties on the left and right.

The ruling centre-right Homeland Union-LKD cannot indeed be written off. It has been hit by many scandals, notably the paedophilia accusations against its member Kristijonas Bartosevicius, and the embarrassing property dealings of leader and Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, who bought a vast property on a Greek island just before the start of the Ukraine war. It is also excoriated for what many deem its failed education and health reforms.

However, although it is only third in the polls with around 9%, it has a very disciplined and large electoral base (about 200,000 voters), dubbed sheep for their loyalty, who cast their votes for the party in every election.

This time around it will be handicapped by the possible failure of its centrist coalition allies, the Liberal Movement and the Freedom Party. The chances of the liberal parties are much lower now than four years ago – some even question if they will cross the 5 per cent parliamentary threshold in the multi-party constituencies.

During the last Seimas elections, the Freedom Party was  a whiff of fresh air, especially for the young generation, with its bright, bold, talk about civil partnership and other issues that attract a progressive modern European. However, after a four-year term, accompanied by scandals and unfulfilled promises, the slogan “We have unfinished business" may not be enough now.

The Liberal Movement, the other liberal party, has been calm, non-confrontational and almost invisible in the Seimas. Their one mandate in the European Parliament elections in May may perhaps be ominous.

Viktorija Cmilyte-Nielsen, the chairperson of the party and speaker of the Seimas, also did not impress voters when she ignored the revelations on social media that her father was a high-ranking KGB officer.

Another progressive party, the Green Union, looks like a fairly classic green party, with leftwing policies on many issues. 

Among the other parties, former premier Saulius Skvernelis' Democrats for the sake of Lithuania, who split from the Lithuania’s Farmers and Greens Union in 2021, have faded. At first, they were interesting, with a lot of well-known defectors from other parties, but since then they have fizzled out.

The return of the controversial populist Viktor Uspaskich, once a hugely popular politician in Lithuania, and the founder of the Labour Party, also went largely unnoticed. Now, leader of a new political force, the Peace Coalition, he has failed to make a splash despite calling for the end of war in Ukraine when virtually all the other parties back Kyiv.

The Peace Coalition, comprising of the Labour Party, the Lithuanian Christian Democracy Part and the Zemaiciai Party, promises to pay pensioners a one-time payment of euro3,000 and give them a 40% increase in pensions, to terminate universal conscription, and to stop the unpopular reform of the network of healthcare institutions. 

According to political scientists, the Peace Coalition may chip away some voters from The Dawn of the River Neman, and has more chance than other anti-systemic parties to overcome the 5% parliamentary threshold. 

These include the Lithuanian People's Party, whose leader Eduardas Vaitkus spreads pro-Russian narratives. Vaitkus will also present his candidacy in the single-mandate district of Salcininkai, bordering Poland, where he received the greatest support during the presidential election, slightly over 20 per cent.

National Unification runs on a nationalist programme, naming Russia as the threat, and demands an end to the “colonisation” of Lithuania by migrants. Over 200,000 migrants entered Lithuania after 2020, around 70% of them Ukrainians.

Among the 19 parties participating in the election it is much easier to say who will not enter coalition formation talks together. However, considering that the votes will be spread so widely, many compromises will have to be made to form a new ruling coalition. 

In all, 70 members of the Seimas will be elected in multi-mandate party constituencies and the remaining 71 in single-mandate constituencies, where voters vote for candidates nominated by parties or self-nominated candidates. In all, 1,769 candidates will vie for the seats and 2,375,800 voters will have the right to vote in the elections.