Poland stands at a critical juncture in its energy landscape, facing pressures to transition away from fossil fuels and enhance energy security thanks to geopolitical disruptions to the global energy markets and the accelerating Climate Crisis. 

The war in Ukraine and the European Union's climate mandates means biogas—especially in its liquefied form as bio-LNG—has emerged as a potential game-changer in this transformation.

Traditionally Poland has long been depended on coal, which has historically provided a substantial portion of its energy supply. However, this reliance poses significant environmental and regulatory challenges, especially in light of the EU's ambitious climate targets and a pledge to phase out coal completely. The UK became the first European country to meet that challenge at the end of September and green energy has recently overtaken coal in both the EU and China. Poland's commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and transitioning to renewable energy sources is now more pressing than ever to keep up with its peers. 

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the global LNG market is growing at an annual rate of 6%, while Poland has seen a 15% increase in demand for LNG fuel over the past two years, after cutting itself off from Russian gas entirely. 

On November 23, 2021, the Ministry of Climate and Environment initiated the "Agreement on Cooperation for the Development of the Biogas and Biomethane Sector," aiming to establish a stable and integrated platform to foster collaboration and support the dynamic growth of these sectors in Poland.

The country’s agricultural sector, which occupies about 60% of its land, presents a ripe opportunity for biogas production and a potential output of 8bn cubic meters of biogas a year. Poland is positioned to develop a robust biogas industry that could significantly contribute to its energy mix.

A transformative opportunity 

Bio-LNG, as a refined product of biogas, is particularly relevant for the transport sector, which is one of the largest sources of emissions in Poland. With heavy-duty vehicles and maritime transport contributing significantly to greenhouse gases, bio-LNG offers a low-carbon alternative that could help achieve substantial emissions reductions.

Projections indicate that by 2050, bio-LNG could comprise approximately 21.7% of energy consumption in transportation. This aligns with the EU’s Renewable Energy Directive, which mandates that renewable energy must account for at least 14% of transportation fuels by 2030. Given this regulatory framework, Poland is encouraged to invest in bio-LNG to meet these targets and enhance its energy diversity.

The economic implications of developing a biogas industry are considerable. While the initial investment required for bio-LNG infrastructure—estimated between PLN29.98mn and PLN34.1mn (€6.6mn-€7.5mn) for a typical facility—is substantial, the long-term benefits can outweigh these costs. Increased job creation, energy independence, and lower carbon footprints are significant potential outcomes of this investment.

The growth trajectory for bio-LNG facilities across Europe is promising. The number of installations surged nearly 600% from 2018 to 2022, and forecasts suggest that Poland could see its installations rise from 34 in 2022 to over 100 by 2025. This rapid expansion offers Poland an opportunity to establish a competitive position in the European bio-LNG market.

Challenges to overcome 

Despite the favourable outlook for biogas, several challenges could impede its development in Poland. Regulatory uncertainty is a primary concern. The current lack of clear policies and state support during the nascent stages of the biogas market could stall progress and deter potential investors.

Moreover, concerns about indirect land use change (ILUC) complicate the expansion of agricultural land for biogas production. If not managed carefully, this could negate some of the environmental benefits that biogas is expected to deliver.

Infrastructure investment is also critical. While Poland has a functioning LNG terminal in Świnoujście, expanding this to accommodate bio-LNG will require extensive coordination across various sectors. Proposals like Gaz-System's plans for a floating storage regasification unit (FSRU) by 2027/2028 are steps in the right direction but will need additional support from the gas transmission networks.

To maximize the potential of biogas, Poland must foster strategic partnerships with nations that have successfully integrated biogas into their energy frameworks. Countries such as Germany and Sweden offer valuable lessons in best practices and technological innovations that could facilitate Poland's transition.

Collaborative efforts among government, industry stakeholders, and academia will be essential in developing a comprehensive strategy for biogas. Regulatory reforms, alongside increased public and private investment, will be key to overcoming current barriers.