Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is intensifying efforts to boost his approval ratings as the 2025 presidential campaign approaches.

Regime enforcers continue to play a significant role in regulating the economy and redistributing the consumer market, while security forces employ severe repression tactics to demotivate society, Belarus in Focus reports.

Lukashenko is also fending off questions about his health. The Belarusian strongman recently travelled to Moscow to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin but video released on Russian state TV showed him heavily overweight, sweating and panting when he walked, leading observers to ask if Lukashenko is sick again.

More recently he appeared at the summit in Belarus last week with his military bosses but looked in worse shape. “He was in a military uniform taking part in a parade in Minsk. His face is pale, shiny; his speech is not very confident,” Belarus in Focus reported.

Russian state media, which wields significant influence over Belarusian audiences, has prompted the president to refute rumours of his ill health during the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Astana. The messages are primarily directed at Belarusian officials to quash discussions about a potential transfer of power. Lukashenko has made it clear that he intends to remain in office beyond 2025 and has already commenced his presidential campaign.

In an effort to enhance his personal image and garner support, Lukashenko is adopting populist measures, albeit belatedly. Following the aftermath of a hurricane in the Gomel region, he flew to the Mazyr district for an inspection, attempting to channel public dissatisfaction with his administration's inconsistent response towards officials. Lukashenko appears to be paying closer attention to public reaction to high-profile events, possibly influenced by the return of his influential chief of staff Natalia Petkevich to the Presidential Administration.

The state apparatus is facing a decline in governance quality due to a breakdown in feedback from the population. Independent analysts note that the ruling class prefers forceful methods to address social tension and repression. Regime enforcers are working to prevent new protests by conducting large-scale detentions of activists known since 2020. The 2025 presidential campaign is being run in an atmosphere of repression and intimidation.

The already choking noose of Lukashenko’s rule is being tightened further. The liquidation of public organisations continues, despite a massive purge in 2022-2023. Courts are increasingly labelling materials and formations as “extremist” and targeting regime opponents. Security forces are demonstratively persecuting those who protested against falsifications of the 2020 presidential election, with property expropriations from regime opponents persisting, Belarus in Focus reports.

Security forces maintain significant influence within the ruling class as the 2025 poll approaches. In the special commission responsible for selecting companies importing alcoholic products, officials are joined by tax officers and security personnel from the KGB, Ministry of Internal Affairs, and Customs Committee. Officials have declared the preservation of the “Island of Cleanliness and Taste” brand, albeit under new ownership. This major Belarusian retailer faced serious financial problems after the arrest of its owners in 2022 and punitive expropriations amounting to $7mn.

Consequently, security forces are receiving financial bonuses through additional budget redistributions. The State Customs Committee will be allocated BYN2.24mn from the budget.