Has Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan just knocked out the main challenger to his presidency on a technicality before a punch has been thrown in earnest?

Late on March 18, public school Istanbul University announced that it was voiding the university degree held by Istanbul’s opposition mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, as well as those of 27 individuals. Possessing such a degree is a mandatory requirement for any candidate running for the office of the presidency.

As bne IntelliNews has previously observed, Imamoglu, who rose to prominence when he defeated Erdogan’s handpicked candidate in Istanbul’s 2019 mayoral race, has become one of Turkey’s most popular politicians and is viewed by Erdogan as a real threat. On March 23, the Republican People’s Party, or CHP, is set to make Imamoglu, who was re-elected mayor last year in a landslide, its presidential pick.

Responding to the revoking of his degree on X, Imamoglu, who will hold a rally in Istanbul on March 22, criticised the university for an “illegal” decision, stating that those responsible would be held accountable before history and justice.

Many analysts think Imamoglu would prove a real threat to Erdogan in a fair contest (Credit: MHIRM).

At the weekend, ahead of the decision on his degree, Imamoglu, who is also under investigation by prosecutors in several other cases that could force him out of politics and is appealing against one conviction, told a CHP party meeting in Ankara: “Those who want to plot against me and tarnish my reputation should better know that they are entering a road of no return. I am issuing a historic call from the heart of Türkiye, Ankara: All these investigations, preparations [against me] are baseless.” 

“The purpose of all these actions is to try to fabricate a criminal organisation around Ekrem Imamoglu,” he added.

In mid-February, Imamoglu called on Erdogan to give him the “honest fight” that the country, which “loves the brave and the honourable”, wanted to see. He accused the president of more than two decades of attempting to manoeuvre him out of politics with judicial conspiracies.

Erdogan, who the previous week was the target of a rare attack launched by leaders of Turkey's main business lobby, rejected the idea that he was involved in investigations launched into Imamoglu. When quizzed about the legal action against the mayor on February 14, Erdogan told reporters: “I don’t care if a political ban is imposed on anyone.”

The case against the validity of his degree was made public one day after Imamoglu declared he would run for the presidency.

Imamoglu said he would challenge the legality of what he called a politically motivated decision but did not think he would obtain a fair outcome. An appeal process could go all the way to the constitutional court. It could take years to be resolved.

Explaining their challenge to the validity of the degree, Turkish prosecutors have claimed that in 1990 Imamoglu made an illegal transfer to Istanbul University during his second year as a student from a northern Cypriot university. The illegality is said to have been caused by the latter institution not being recognised by the Turkish authorities at the time. Imamoglu’s lawyer has told local media that other Turkish students made similar transfers. Those transfers were apparently accepted with no issues raised.

Turkey’s next presidential elections are scheduled for 2028.

There is mounting speculation that 71-year-old Erdogan, Turkey’s leader for more than two decades who also climbed the political ladder as mayor of Istanbul, wishes to stand for a new mandate. As things stand, the law would not allow him to put forward his candidacy if the poll takes place in line with the electoral calendar, but he could get around that difficulty by securing enough parliamentary support to change the constitution or by calling a snap election.

On February 20, this publication’s Istanbul Blog wrote: “In the new local government cycle that began with the March 2024 poll results, it is the seizing of CHP municipalities that has emerged as a new phenomenon.

“Those who watch Turkey with any seriousness know that the real target is Istanbul’s CHP mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.

“To Erdogan, Imamoglu is a slippery adversary. He is not just flexible, he is liquid. Erdogan cannot get a grip. Imamoglu slips through his fingers.

“You might say that Imamoglu is able to take the form of any ‘pot’ on any shelf he wishes. He is a Kurd with the Kurds, a Turk to the followers of the late Turkish racist Nihal Atsiz, Islamist at the mosque, secular at the fish restaurant… and so on.

“Knowing Imamoglu is a real threat, Erdogan hangs his Sword of Damocles over his foe’s head. What does he plan as an intended end-game? Will he move to jail Imamoglu? Or ban him from politics?

“Perhaps, even Erdogan is not too sure as yet what his final move should be. It will depend on many factors, both domestic and international.

“However, Turkey’s president keeps his Sword of Damocles handy. To Imamoglu, wherever he makes a meaningful move, it appears. Imamoglu knows he needs some fancy footwork. He has to keep it smart. As things stand, he must still avoid directly challenging Erdogan. But on March 23, the CHP is set to announce him as its candidate for the presidency.”