Mexico's seizure of US-bound fentanyl has dropped dramatically, despite the potent synthetic opioid causing over 70,000 overdose deaths annually in the United States. According to figures from Mexico’s Defence Department, only 130 kilograms (286 pounds) of fentanyl were seized in the first half of 2024, marking a significant 94% decrease from the 2,329 kilograms (5,135 pounds) confiscated in 2023. Meanwhile, methamphetamine seizures have soared, with over 400 tons intercepted in 2023—more than twelve times the amount in 2022. This trend continued into 2024, with 168 tons of meth seized by mid-year.

Several factors may explain this shift. Methamphetamine, unlike fentanyl, has a substantial domestic market in Mexico, in addition to being exported to the United States. The increase in meth seizures likely reflects a strategic reallocation of resources by Mexican authorities, focusing on the drug that poses a more immediate threat within their borders.

Internal conflicts within the Sinaloa cartel, the dominant meth producer in Mexico, may also play a role. Rival factions, the “Mayitos” and “Chapitos,” could be tipping off authorities about each other’s operations, leading to increased meth busts. Mexican security analyst David Saucedo suggests these internal disputes have impacted fentanyl shipments as well, with violence disrupting trafficking routes to the US.

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (AMLO) administration has shown a complex stance on fentanyl. López Obrador has publicly denied that fentanyl is produced in Mexico, despite evidence from experts and officials within his administration confirming its manufacturing by cartels using precursor chemicals from China and India.

In response to the ongoing drug crisis, the United States is stepping up its efforts. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, during a visit to Atlanta, announced new sanctions against members of the La Nueva Familia Michoacana cartel. This cartel, known for trafficking fentanyl, cocaine, methamphetamines, and migrants, has become a significant target. The sanctions include measures against eight cartel members, including the Hurtado brothers, who were previously implicated in producing “rainbow” fentanyl pills aimed at younger demographics.

Yellen also issued an advisory to financial institutions, urging them to monitor and report suspicious transactions linked to the sale and purchase of chemicals and equipment used in synthetic opioid production. "Combatting the trafficking of fentanyl is a significant challenge," Yellen stated. "It will not be solved overnight. But let me be clear: The President and I will do everything we can to combat this crisis."

This initiative follows the enactment of the FEND Off Fentanyl Act by President Joe Biden, declaring the international trafficking of fentanyl a national emergency. The CDC reports that drug overdose deaths in the US have surged more than sevenfold from 2015 to 2021, with fentanyl being the most lethal drug currently.

The DEA identifies Mexico and China as the primary sources of fentanyl and its precursors. Nearly all chemicals required for fentanyl production are sourced from China, underscoring the international scope of the crisis.