With no natural gas and insufficient electricity produced from its limited coal reserves, the pro-Russian separatist Transnistria region in Moldova has chosen to live under a self-imposed energy blockade after Ukraine discontinued the transfer of Russian gas to Europe (including Moldova) on January 1, and Gazprom refused to discuss alternative routes.

The separatist authorities in Tiraspol refused the alternative gas contracts and the humanitarian aid made available by Moldova’s authorities, in what appears to be a cynical political ploy imposed by Moscow and accepted by the separatists with the aim of destabilising the situation within Moldova. 

The central authorities in Chisinau are seeking options to protect Moldovan citizens in the region and possibly take another step towards integrating the territory. Moldova made all necessary arrangements to supply natural gas to the separatist region, but Transnistria refused all offers. 

The gas company in the breakaway region, Tiraspoltransgaz, rejected offers from Moldovan energy companies Moldovagaz and Energocom "due to high and unstable prices" on the European market. In addition, the separatist authorities in Tiraspol expect that Russia's Gazprom will resume gas supplies under its contract with Moldovagaz, which is valid until 2026.

Transnistria’s population suffers

The energy crisis affecting the whole of Moldova since the beginning of January primarily hit the population of Transnistria. 

Schools, hospitals and industrial facilities have all been closed down in the region and people are using firewood for heating, where possible – meaning not in apartment blocks, where the use of electric and gas-fired heating devices has been banned. Blackouts are planned across the region each day and the water supply is switched off frequently. 

Transnistria shut down its industry, notably the steel plant employing 1,700 in Ribnita, but also the main bread factory in the same city. The district heating system is severely damaged after water in the pipes froze. Thousands of people have been admitted to hospitals due to the freezing temperatures in most of homes. Doctors have advised people to maintain social distancing, dress warmly, move more, drink hot drinks, eat hot food and avoid alcohol. 

Beyond the humanitarian cost, a permanent loss of Russian gas would be a devastating blow for Transnistria's authorities, as the separatist regime, a political extension of the economic holding Sheriff, cannot exist without free natural gas from Russia. 

The disruption in the gas supplies is clearly being used by Russia as a means to both discipline the separatists and to generate tensions in the rest of Moldova, where electricity and heating prices have already surged.

Transnistria had received free natural gas from Gazprom since it claimed independence in 1992 and the unpaid bills reached $11bn. The benefits were shared between the region’s population and Sheriff. 

Meanwhile, the rest of Moldova has paid its gas bills and switched to alternative gas sources in 2022 to avoid political dependence. 

Change in rhetoric 

As long as Gazprom continued its free gas supplies, the Transnistrian authorities avoided tensions with either Moscow or Chisinau. This allowed them to benefit from free Russian gas as well as from the opening of EU markets to Moldovan goods. 

Now, however, the pro-Russian regime in Tiraspol has stepped up its propaganda against the pro-EU central authorities in Chisinau, accusing them of using energy as a weapon against the separatists.

The separatist regime thus convincingly adopted the Russian narratives for the first time since the war started in Ukraine in 2022.

“Transnistria has been under a gas blockade for four days now due to the authorities in Chisinau, and during this time both their strategy and the methods they use to achieve their main goal – the liquidation of Transnistrian statehood through economic and energy strangulation – have become obvious,” local political expert Andrei Safonov argued on January 5, quoted by the state news agency Novosti Pridnestrovie. 

Instead of drawing up an alternative energy strategy, the separatists in Tiraspol are now spreading disinformation. They are essentially accusing the constitutional authorities in Chisinau (instead of Russia/Gazprom) of being at the root of the energy crisis.

Turning against the government in Chisinau appears to be the only option for the separatists if they are to regain Russia’s economic support.

Hopes for the return of Russian gas in Transnistria are supported by Safonov, who pointed out that Russia sent pensions and social support to its Russian citizens in the region in December. The social support, paid to low-income retired persons, was paid for six months in advance, he claimed.

Broader implications 

The aim of Tiraspol’s allegations against the central authorities in Chisinau is most likely to generate negative sentiment among the pro-Russian electorate in the whole country ahead of the parliamentary elections, in which the pro-EU authorities seek to preserve their majority. Energy prices have already increased in Moldova, which now imports electricity and gas from Romania.

A self-imposed humanitarian crisis in Transnistria may serve as a justification for a direct intervention by Russia, at least through the activation of its troops stationed in the separatist region.

Triggering a military confrontation between Chisinau and Tiraspol may be another scenario envisaged by Russia with the gas supply disruption, but this looks rather a remote option as long as the authorities in Chisinau do not step into the region to restore the energy supply.