The industrial output index in Moldova (chart) contracted by 6.1% y/y in November, after it posted encouraging growth rates of +8.2% in October and +1.5% in September, according to data released by the statistics bureau BNS.

The misleading positive signals sent in September and October reflected base effects after industrial activity was sharply reduced last winter (2022-2023) to save on natural gas consumption. With slightly more affordable and accessible natural gas in the autumn of 2023, companies afforded a slightly higher production.

But the 6.1% decline in November, on top of the 6.8% decline reported in November 2022, is placing Moldova’s industry back on the downward path.

The industrial output in 12 months to November contracted by 5.1% y/y compared to the previous 12-month period. The decline was -6.6% for the manufacturing industries.

Moldova’s industrial output had previously dropped by 5.0% y/y in 2022 after the 12.4% y/y post-Covid recovery in 2021. Overall, Moldova’s industry is trailing currently slightly below the (pretty stable) pre-Covid levels reached in 2018-2019.

When it comes to specific industries, there are three that stand out for their resilient growth. The production of pharmaceutical products increased by 22% y/y in the 12 months before November 2023.

In the same period, the output of metallurgical products increased by 19% y/y.

Finally, a group of industries providing electric, electronic, optic and other parts mainly for the automobile industry posted growth rates of +25% y/y and +153% y/y.

The food and beverage industries, with a significant share in the country’s economic activity, posted negative growth rates of -12.1% y.y and -5.6% y/y.