The European Union officially launched accession negotiations with Moldova and Ukraine during the accession conference held in Luxembourg on June 25 – roughly two years after the two countries filed membership requests and ten years since they sealed Association Agreements. 

“It is a historic moment for us taking place during historic times for Europe. On this occasion, I reiterate unequivocally that Moldova sees its future in the EU and we will make the necessary efforts to become a member. We are committed to following the principles of negotiation to obtain merit-based accession,” said Moldova’s Prime Minister Dorin Recean, who headed his country’s delegation at the accession conference.

Minister of Foreign Affairs of Belgium Hadja Lahbib, on behalf of the Belgium EU Presidency, expressed full support for Moldova along its accession process. 

“We will continue to support the Republic of Moldova to strengthen its resilience in the face of Russia's hybrid actions … Your country is part of Europe,” she said.

However, Lahbib explained that in the EU accession process, Moldova will have to continue the implementation of judicial reforms – which will serve as an indicator of the progress of the entire process.

"In particular, attention should be drawn to justice reform. To ensure the irreversibility of progress, the process will be closely monitored by the Commission. The progress will determine the progress of the negotiations,” she said.

Future steps begin in 2025, and the pace of negotiations depends on Moldova.

A process of bilateral screening by cluster (of negotiation chapters) can begin in early 2025 and will take 12-18 months, Moldova’s deputy PM for European Integration Cristina Gherasimov explained at a press conference preceding the accession conference. The first cluster will include justice, security and government procurement.

Gherasimov did not mention whether the six-month gap is linked to the Hungarian EU Council presidency, which has constantly expressed doubts about the opportunity of accession talks with the two countries (Ukraine in particular) before some key issues are discussed.

A detailed bilateral screening agenda still has to be drafted by the EC. Following the completion of the bilateral screening by clusters, negotiations will be opened for the respective chapters.

The pace of negotiations depends on Moldova, Gherasimov stated.

There is no assurance that the discussions will result in EU membership. Turkey and several Western Balkan countries have been engaged in the accession process for many years.

The accession conference comes at the right time to maintain pro-EU momentum in Moldova.

It is a symbolic gesture aimed at consolidating the pro-EU sentiment among the two countries’ populations: the European Commission recommended the step for Moldova and Ukraine last December, sketching some minimal reforms that the countries should complete before the formal accession conference.  

The EU had no choice but to start accession talks with Moldova, because Brussels would otherwise have seriously endangered the odds of President Maia Sandu securing another term, with possibly fatal consequences for the viability of the accession process. 

While Ukraine is fighting a visible enemy on the battlefield, Moldova is faced with hybrid challenges: massive propaganda, disinformation and financial interference carried out by Russia through intermediaries ahead of presidential elections and a pro-EU referendum on October 20. 

Pro-Russian politicians such as fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor, who has explicit backing from Moscow, are stepping up their efforts to return to power in Chisinau, capitalising on the deep effects of two centuries of Russian dominance. 

Moldova’s pro-EU authorities hope for full membership around 2030. Both Moldova and Ukraine have set 2030 as a full membership target, but the challenges are many: for Moldova, separatist Transnistria is a key issue to tackle and inviting representatives from the region (economically linked to Europe and politically cautious during the war in Ukraine) would have sent a strong positive message.

“The authorities in Tiraspol will be informed about the acquis and we will discuss options to implement it on the territory of Transnistria,” Gherasimov said during a press conference preceding the accession conference.

Moldova’s European journey began late and was derailed by corrupt pro-EU governments.

Following the fall of the communist governments with a pro-Russian orientation that dominated the country’s politics for two decades after the country’s independence from the USSR in 1991, Moldova signed the Association Agreement with the EU – including a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) – in 2014. 

But the unconvincing performance of the first pro-EU governments in Chisinau, sponsored by (now fugitive) oligarch Vlad Plahotniuc, which culminated with the billion-dollar bank fraud in 2015, and the pro-Russian president Igor Dodon prevented further steps towards EU membership. 

Sandu, the leader of the pro-EU Party and Solidarity Action (PAS), defeated Dodon in 2020 and her party gained the majority in parliament in 2021. Moldova has gradually distanced itself from Russia and took steps, besides Ukraine and Georgia, to resume EU accession efforts. It was only after Russia attacked Ukraine that both regimes in Kyiv and Chisinau submitted membership applications in June 2022.